Will pea prices be any good in coming year?

[poorboy]

I am just getting into growing peas, but I am concerned about the price prospects for next year. India having the best monsoon rains in years and the high cost of ocean freight are going to reduce one buyer of peas, and this year Europe is buying feed peas like crazy because of their drought, but next year assuming normal moisture they may not be back. So, assuming average moisture, could we see a lack of demand and $3 bushel feed peas and $4 edible yellows. I am quite concerned, because at that price, it does not pay to grow peas.

At what price do peas become competitive as a protein source in north america, assuming that canola prices stay in that $340/t range for new crop.

Poorboy

[TOM4CWB]

Poorboy;

I will give a stab at this one... as I am considering it myself.

Soymeal is the closest hedge... and may be a reasonable option with little CBOT wheat thrown in for energy.

These two markets (CBOT soymeal and wheat) are the best indicatior of where we may go (protein and energy components)... ocean freight is a wild card...

Does Charlie have any further ideas?

[charliep]

Hard to tell right now. I am not as negative as you are for the coming year but there are challenges. My thoughts are $4/bu for feeds next year (assuming you are working with a local hog operation or feed mill) and $4.50ish/bu for edibles.

I likely would start at breakeven analysis for this decision including some analysis of yield variability. I would move from there to comparisons with other crops and where it fits into the rotations. Rotation benefits include nitrogen fixation and improved soil/soil water management. You can compare this factors to other crops you might grow on that field.

Example. You are considering barley or peas. Assuming central Alberta (you put your own numbers in). Expected barley price and yield - $2.50/bu and 70 bu/acre. Expected feed pea price and yield - $4 and 40bu/acre. You put in the cost side. Which one puts more dollars in your pocket? Which one contributes to your agronomics on your rotation (land and chemical)? From a risk management standpoint (both weather and market), is there an arguement for growing a number of different crops?

How do others approach this decision?