Pea Markets 1999

[glenn_thomson]

The big questions: edible vs feed? yellow vs green? Anyone with insights on where the markets may be going with field peas for 1999?

[glenn_thomson]

1999 is a long way out but I will have a crack. Given the strong possibility that world soybean production with remain large (unless weather kicks in), feed pea prices are likely to remain under pressure ($3 to $4/bu). The only positive is that more feed peas will be included in domestic rations - particularly if western Canadian feed wheat/barley supplies tighten as a result of a smaller crop. Edible pea demand will remain good but it is difficult to forecast the $5/bu plus prices most farmers would like to see. The green pea market is smaller but very quality sensitive. As we have seen in the past, a poor quality crop can drive these prices to big premiums over yellows. The story is tell me quality and I'll tell you price. Canada has developed good markets for yellows (China, Cuba, India) albeit at prices around $4/bu. The thing to watch on the yellow pea side will be competition from Assie land. Ascochyta is major probblem in Australia and is impacting their pulse crop production. The impact is to reduce the amount of desi chick peas they have for export. India prefers desi chick peas but will buy yellow peas when the former is not available.

[glenn_thomson]

Canada grew a record 2.7 mln acres in 1998. any thoughts about 1999?

[glenn_thomson]

Typically this is the time of year when contract prices for new crop begin to be offered for special crops. Are there any bids out there?

[glenn_thomson]

Green and yellow peas have had a contract of 4.11/bu this week for next year.