16 Years of Pea Marketing Information

[lakenheath]

I graphed out (from 1991 to 2007) historical data on yellow field peas. The data I used was seeded acres, production, average yield (in our RM's), average price and carry-in and carry-out stocks.

I graphed price in relation to overall production 1991 to 2006, seeded acres to production 1991 to 2006 and price to area yield 1991 to 2006. The rest of the data I put in columns from 1991 to 2007 for quick reference.

The data is very interesting. The average price from 1991 to 2006 is $4.57 a bushel. Looking at the data going into 2007 (govnt. predicting a 5% drop in acres) tells me that locking in as much now for $5.00 or $5.50 is a very good idea.

If anyone wants my excel spreadsheet just give me your e-mail address and I will sent it to you.

I compiled my data from Statistics Canada and the Goverment of Saskatchewan.

I used to have access to monthly pea market prices going back to 1991 but I can no longer access this information from SK Govnt. web-site with the new changes. So the information I have is just yearly averages. Plotting monthly price trends is very intersting but I only have data up to 2003.

[Fransisco]

Here it is, in all it's glory.


Canadian Wheat Board: "Our apologies for the awkwardness"

Background, via a reader: "The Ag minister wrote an op-ed letter in January, wherein he made certain price comparisons on wheat. The CWB is mass mailing prairie newspapers in reply. But instead of trying to directly challenge the comments made by Strahl, the CWB is trying to “correct” the newspaper’s “erroneous price comparisons”. Here’s what happens when one editor points out that the CWB ought to state that Strahl had his numbers wrong. Enjoy!"

Correspondence with a Saskatchewan weekly newspaper from Heather Frayne, CWB Communications Consultant:


(1) Heather Frayne original letter:
Woops. Sent you the wrong letter. Here is the right one. (She had first sent the one intended for the Whitewood Herald).

Heather Frayne
CWB communications consultant (acting)

__________________

The following is a letter to the editor regarding erroneous price comparisons in an article in the January 24 issue of The ***.

It was suggested in the January 24 issue of the *** that an Ontario farmer currently selling hard red spring wheat with 13.5 per cent protein would receive $5.50 per bushel, whereas a grower on the Prairies selling 1CWRS would receive about $4.40 per bushel as a final pool return - approximately $1.10 less. The implication is that this is because of poor performance by the CWB. That implication is incorrect, because of several errors in the comparison.

To begin with, the comparison relates a spot price (the Ontario price) to a pool value (the CWB Pool Return Outlook). This is a misleading comparison. A pool value is by definition an average of prices achieved over an entire crop year. In a rising market such as we have experienced so far this crop year, a spot price is always higher than a pooled price. Is the CWB selling wheat at those "high" Ontario values and returning those dollars to farmers? Yes. In fact, CWB values are even higher, as noted below.

The Ontario farmer spot price of $5.50 per bushel is presumably a price at or near an Ontario mill. Therefore, an appropriate comparison would be the current price of CWB wheat landed at an Ontario mill. On February 5, the CWB offered eastern mills No.1 CWRS with 13.5 per cent protein for $230.47 per tonne at Thunder Bay. Add to this freight charges of $25 from Thunder Bay to the mill, and the landed price equals $255.47 per tonne or $6.95 per bushel.

The comparison, then, is between $5.50 per bushel of hard red spring wheat to the Ontario farmer and $6.95 per bushel for CWB wheat sold in Ontario. This $6.95 per bushel would be added to the pooled payments western farmers receive for wheat sold throughout the 2006-07 crop year.

Because the CWB's Ontario sales prices are based on competitive North American values, western farmers can obtain similar cash values today under the CWB's other pricing options such as our Daily Price Contract.

It appears that Ontario farmers are receiving prices that are significantly under current market values.

The truth, therefore, is the exact opposite: CWB prices are higher.

Sincerely,
Gord Flaten,
CWB Vice-President, Marketing

Heather Frayne
CWB communications consultant (acting)

(2) Editor’s Reply:
Hi Heather,

I looked for the article in question. The information appeared, not in an internally generated piece, but in an op-ed provided by Chuck Strahl, our minister of agriculture. As a hint, and since I know you're sending this to everyone who runs the op-eds from Strahl, if you want editors to run your piece, you should not try to make it look like we made a mistake - since we didn't! If you want to reword your letter to be more accurate - that being that 'in an article by Chuck Strahl, minister of agriculture, which appeared in many publications in Saskatchewan,' ... you might actually have a shot
at getting your side in print. As it is now .. best of luck, you'll need it.

(3) Letter from Heather Frayne:
Hi **,

I just called 306-** and left a message for you with a man whose name I didn't catch. He said he would ask you to call when you get back in.

I appreciate your comments, and agree absolutely that more specific information would have been useful and appropriate. Unfortunately, because of the gag order and the political environment in which we're trying to operate, I wasn't at liberty to include those details. In other words, I'm relying on editors and publishers to understand the reference--like you, most are well aware of what they've published and what they haven't--and joining the dots for their readers.

So... all the best. And my apologies for the awkwardness.

(4) Editor’s Reply:
Hello Heather,

What gag order would that be? The one that says that you cannot bad-mouth your boss - the minister of agriculture, Chuck Strahl? … I know it must be frustrating to try to mount a campaign against the guy who signs your pay checks, but I do not believe in 'inferences.' To run your letter without being specific, not only serves to make me look bad, it serves to make you look bad as well.

(5) Heather Trayne Reply:
You are, of course, under no obligation to correct misinformation that you have previously published.

I, like all employees of the CWB, am paid by the farmers of western Canada for whom I work, not by the Minister of Agriculture.

(6) Editor’s Reply:
I didn't say you worked for him, I said he signed your pay checks.

You know something Heather, better still, why don't you take this up with Chuck. He's the one who 'provided' misinformation, if in fact he did, and he is the one you should be addressing - through a letter to the editor, naming him as the culprit... and as for working for the farmers of western Canada ... I'm from Ontario and I know exactly who you're working for, not having been brought up on the fairy tale.

[Fransisco]

Are ya kidding me??

[grainboy]

please send to grainboy2@yahoo.ca

Thanks

[BennyHin]

"Jaw dropping, incredible,groundbreaking research journalism", "way to go Parsley for breaking the story.


What is going on at the CWB? How dare they!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!

Way to go Frisco, fantastic commentary and insight. You are doing wonders on this site to further our marketing know-how. keep it up.

[parsley]

This is no joke.

So who is Heather Frayne?

-worked for years as a radio and television producer for the CBC.

-Born in England

- works part-time as an assistant to a Member of Parliament. I don't think it's Strahl!

-lives in Winnipeg.
Who is paying Heather Frayne?

So the next thing is Gord Flaten....this is his letter.

Shouldn't he be the one fired?


Parsley

[parsley]

You approve BennyHinn?

Parsley

[BennyHin]

Yeah right!

[parsley]

I'm asking you seriously, BH. Are you ok with the CWB launching a change-your-mind campaign in the middle of voting WITH YOUR MONEY?

Parsley

[Fransisco]

"Unfortunately, because of the gag order and the political environment in which we're trying to operate, I wasn't at liberty to include those details. In other words, I'm relying on editors and publishers to understand the reference--like you, most are well aware of what they've published and what they haven't--and joining the dots for their readers."

Looks like a pretty cut and dried case of spending farmers money on another propaganda campaign in violation of the federal order in council.

Imagine what they might accomplish if they put this much work into marketing crops instead of marketing B.S.

[BennyHin]

Parsley:

I think I know where your staunch opionions come from. Your convictions are deep, and your mindset entrenched.

I realize you hate the cwb because of the CWB buy-back on organic sales (as you mentioned over and over again). If there was no buy back on organics, I imagine we wouldnt hear a peep from you.

I agree to a point that the CWB should give a concession to valid organic farmers selling organinc production. I dont think 250,000-400,000 tonnes/year organic wheat would effect the CWB pools significantly, so long as the seller is a valid cert organic farmer, selling cert orgainic wheat.

Just fax your export permit request to the CWB along with your cert producer information, and go ahead and sell your grain, no buy back. The problem is you will have Cherry Pickers trying to do the same thing, selling non-organics at the higher spot cash price. (Perhaps FRISCO can elaborate on this from experience)?

I know you hate the bureaucracy of faxing papers (but you did note in a previous post how easy it was dealing with the USA government's import documentation.

I myself as stated before, market 60-70% of my crops non-board (i.e. canola, peas, canary, beans, flax, rye-grass, cert seed, etc) I do so with success on my own and with the assistance of brokers, and lots of networking and researching.. read, read read... and phone phone phone.

I like the marketing choice the CWB provides me on top of non-boards, further diversifying my marketing portfolio. I have several marketing options via the board,I like to mix it up with pooling, fixed price , basis (futures first option that isnt available with some major grain co's), rolling basis, play old crop new crop spreads, play 0.1% protein spreads (where are the canola oil spreads), get paid in 10 days, guaranteed payment etc.

You can find all the negative you want about any grain co, any person, any religion, any company. It all comes down to ideology, and we will never settle this argument. But eventually you guys will win.

[craig]

I have a problem with some of the comments re Gord Flaten. It is suggested that we are in a rising wheat market. I would suggest that premium values were available early in the crop year and that wheat prices have trended flat for some time. The board states what values it is receiving for wheat delivered Ontario but if PRO's reflect average prices over time then the CWB has obviously made a lot of sales at values considerably lower than Ontario prices received by the farmer. The comments imply that an Ontario producer is receiving less for his grain than someone in the designated area. This is simply not true. The reality is to ask an Ontario producer if he feels he is better off today in an open market than when he was under a single desk. Producers are not stupid. They know there bottom line and make marketing decisions accordingly. If you are happy with the price you receive and it makes you a profit you are receiving value from the market place. Don't imply that by selling at these values you are missing opportunity. Anyone who follows the market understands that under the single desk this crop year we have given up huge opportunites for better values in both wheat and barley.

[GrainBeetle]

Hey fransico: You seem to be a defender of free speech and freedom of rights. We gained these freedoms as a nation fighting in WW1 WW2. Is the CWB fight at the same level of importance that you seem to make it out to be?

How many C.O.'s in you family's past? I hear many in the region didnt fight the wars, but stayed home and bought all the farm land from underneath the fighting soldiers families?

[Fransisco]

Bennyhin said, "The problem is you will have Cherry Pickers trying to do the same thing, selling non-organics at the higher spot cash price. (Perhaps FRISCO can elaborate on this from experience)?"

You don't have to worry about me jumping in and out of your precious pool Benny. Give me the option and I'm out, you want it in writing, no problem. There are many ways to capture an average price if that's what gets your motor running, but you don't need my grain to do it, you never did.

Bennyhin said, " I like the marketing choice the CWB provides me on top of non-boards, further diversifying my marketing portfolio"

Good for you for liking it, some people like brussel sprouts, but stop kidding yourself and everyone else that it is a choice. It is not a choice, you have no say in the matter.


Grainbeetle, not that it's any of your business and has nothing to do with the argument, but my family emigrated to Canada from Europe after World War Two with little more than the clothes on their backs.

Yes, the CWB is a problem, but no, it is not even in the same category as the Nazi's. What kind of a stupid question is that?

Yes farmers who sell their own wheat go to jail, but no those jails are not forced labour camps with gas chambers and ovens on the side.

What's the next kooky irrelevant question? Do I like Coke better than Pepsi?

[TOM4CWB]

GrainBattle

My better halfs family had Officers who returned and as Veterans were GIVEN farm land by the gov.

It is a sure thing this is a religious battle... built on Coveting, Jelousy, Envy, and Arrogance that anyone should have the right to take a neighbours property. This has nothing to do with cooperation... it is confiscation.

Grade for grade... intrinsic quality considered between Canada Eastern Red Spring, and CWRS, CWB Minister Strahl is close enough to the bulls eye... that the CWB should not be beefing.

This is the real reason for this charade... not at all as represented by the CWB herein.

The CWB is getting Fair Market Value, for quality, inventory control, risk management, and all the other considerations that are part of CWB sales packages to millers. If these eastern millers could get wheat from elsewhere... for less... they would... and at times do even if it costs them extra!

It gets tiring fighting with a steer with a bull's bad habits.