New Crop Peas

[gregpet]

I do enjoy all the back and forth debate but most people are very entrenched in their views and will not change their position even if they are proven to be wrong. All I can say is that a lot of information about how the CWB operates and these invisible premiums they get for us will come to light after April 1st when the CWB is finally subject to the access to information act. Not a moment too soon.

[agstar77]

Perhaps I should have said , how would you suggest the CWB sell into the U.S. market so that prices rally ? Don't you think other sellers know when Millers are dealing with CWB? They obviously know the amounts that the Mills require. Are they that stupid? I have listened to a Cargill rep say they like the consistency of product they get from the CWB and are willing but cautious in paying extra for this consistency. This should raise the price U.S. farmers get if they could get their act together. U.S. farm groups envy our system and wish to destroy it.

[jensend]

i think it's time to get rid of the cwb and let grain farmers move on to the real problems in the grain industry.

[chaffmeister]

Agstar:

Here's another shot at it:

<i>Perhaps I should have said, how would you suggest the CWB sell into the U.S. market so that prices rally ?</i>
First, if you think you’re a grain company, act like one. When a buyer comes in for large amounts, sell on a basis only. Why would you take on the flat price risk of a large sale – why would you expect farmers to? (This is Tom4CWB’s issue.) The CWB always says it sells throughout the year so as to get a good average. What that means is that it should price only when it’s being shipped. If shipments are made evenly throughout the year, so should the pricing. (You wouldn’t get caught selling too much too early – like this year.)

<i>Don't you think other sellers know when Millers are dealing with CWB? </i>
Nope. When someone wants to take advantage of the CWB system to get coverage quickly and without making a ripple on the market, you can be certain that they don’t advertise it.

<i>They obviously know the amounts that the Mills require. Are they that stupid? </i>
Yes, they probably know what each mill needs. But as I said, the mills don’t advertise their activities nor their coverage.

<i>I have listened to a Cargill rep say they like the consistency of product they get from the CWB and are willing but cautious in paying extra for this consistency. </i>
I have listened to reps say they like buying from the CWB because they can cover large amounts of their demand without lifting the market.</i>

<i>This should raise the price U.S. farmers get if they could get their act together. U.S. farm groups envy our system and wish to destroy it.</i>
US farm groups feel the CWB is selling below the “market”. Don’t think “envy”is the word they use.
If the CWB becomes voluntary, why not get extra market clout by inviting members of the US farm groups to market through the CWB?

[agstar77]

Could you explain the advantage ,for the CWB , to sell as a basis contract? How would that send a positive message to the markets?

[chaffmeister]

bsigg:

You said:
In the U.S., 60% of the commodity prices are paid in government subsidizes.

The CWB says:
In 2000, American wheat producers received 49 per cent of their income from subsidies.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/about/myths/


Thought you'd like to know.

[Fransisco]

If your talking commodities meaning all commodities then its closer to 19% according to the OECD.

http://www.oecd.org/document/54/0,2340,en_2649_34231_35009718_1_1_1_1,00.html

[JohnKenneth]

these prices are close to making peas look better than canola. this makes it an easy decision of what to put on land i haven't got the fert booked for yet. all things related to india seem bullish these days (the new china?) but if $5.50/bu is my first and worst sale, this'll be the best year in peas for a long while.

[chaffmeister]

bsigg:

You said:
In the U.S., 60% of the commodity prices are paid in government subsidizes.

The CWB says:
In 2000, American wheat producers received 49 per cent of their income from subsidies.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/about/myths/


Thought you'd like to know.

[chaffmeister]

Agstar77:

To answer your question, if the CWB sold on a basis contract it would force the buyer to cover its flat price exposure in the futures market – if they want flat price coverage – because they wouldn’t be getting it from the CWB. That buying by the CWB customer would then hit (support) the market (which is a good thing). (There’s your “positive message to the markets”.)

If the CWB also had a policy to price these contracts only in an orderly fashion – that is, as the grain gets shipped throughout the shipping period – then it would be providing the pool with true averaging over time. (I’m not suggesting this is what should be done – but it is what the CWB says is done, even though in reality it isn’t.)

Think about it – if the CWB was doing this now, it would be getting current prices even on sales made much earlier in the price rally.

Seems there’s much about the market and marketing that is unfamiliar to the CWB. If you like, I am more than happy to come and give some open-market training to the CWB staff and BOD – could prove useful in a “dual market”.

[cottonpicken]

Isnt leverage wonderful when its woring in your direction.

[mustardman]

Priced more today at $5.50. On my farm that pencils out to $50 per acre more than canola.
The $300 per bushel seed , high N prices and the relatively low yield on stubble don't make Canola look very good around here.

[JohnKenneth]

what are you using for a canola price, mustardman?

[mustardman]

I am using $9.10 a bushel and a 22 bushel stubble yield for canola.

I have averaged 39 bush/acre on my peas over 9 years so this is the number I'm using there. That along with high fert rate for canola makes a $50 dollar difference on bottom end for peas.

[kamichel]

Was hoping for a 5 dollar price to come up. Since reading this thread I decided to go with a 5.4 target price in Humboldt. The freight is more here. Now the 5 dollar price is here and gets filled within a day. thinking I should drop to 5.3 or 5.2.

Now kicking myself I did not buy my seed a month earlier.