Peas Yellow Edibles

[SASKFARMER3]

Has any one looked at peas and next fall prices.
Simply 25 bus at 4.85 = 121.25
30 bus at 4.85 = 145.50
40 bus at 4.85 = 194.00
50 bus at 4.85 = 242.50
If Joe farmer gets a below average crop he will be loosing huge dollars per acre. A 50 bus crop is exactly same at 4.85 as last years 25 bushel crop at 9 plus.
Is their any crop that is going to pencil out in 2009. Right now it looks like nothing is a sure bet.
Lots saying their going to grow peas but I am starting to think this will change by end of April and pea acres will be down.
Remember the last big wreck in farming from mother nature was 5 years ago if ones a gambler is 2009 the next one?

[SASKFARMER3]

Also one note if one is in the Fed disaster program you are going to loose your high for 2008 prices but also your low for 2004? So ones average will be same as the current prices.

[dave4441]

Is that what is being offered for new crop yellows, $4.85?? I had not heard any new crop pricing. I would suggest that will drop pea acres some, but what do you replace it with???

[TOM4CWB]

SF3;

I had heard of Pioneer doing some $6/bu off the combine a month ago...

Under $5/bu would be the bottom of the pricing range... don't you think?

How many growers would price peas at this value?

[furrowtickler]

S/F while you were gone on holidays and before, canola was $10/bus several times for nov 09. That should translate into a very good profit over any other crop by far, no? Yellow peas are going to be a break even at best and everyone should have known this or as you have shown, should figure this out within minutes. I agree with alot you say but this time you are wrong. I know you never bought fert(n) at high prices and everyone had opertunities including you, to buy at more normal levels and price canola at at least $10/bu. Sorry for the rant but reality checks are needed for everyone sometimes. As of today, everything looks suspect at best.

[SASKFARMER3]

Furrow what are you getting at?
Peas Suck.
Most crops Suck.
The world is in a tail spin and our governments are proping up some fortune 500 companies.
HM Lets all be happy.

[SASKFARMER3]

Furrow also I am talking peas where the heck does the Canola and Fert come into this rant.

[checking]

SF3, in defence of furrowtickler, you did ask the question, " Is there any crop that is going to pencil out in 2009? Right now it looks like nothing is a sure bet". Contracting canola at $10.00 for November 2009 was a legitimate response from furrow.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea I reread it and I did ask that. But over all most crops right now look the ships.

[furrowtickler]

I agree, going foreward things look the "ships", but at least in canola there was an oppertunity to lock in some profit if one did not pay $900/tn for the N. I had this very same conversation with a neighbor a few days back, look for opertunities and avoid getting caught up in the doom and gloomers. I feel that green peas will remain a good premium over yellows for a long time. It should be this way anyway. Canary looks somewhat positive, all mustards, still canola, abd hrsw may be a dark horse givin that the world stocks of quality wheat are going to be still at record lows. Low grade wheats will be a sure looser IMO. As well one can lock in decent lentil prices for fall. So not all is lost yet just look outside the comfort crops.

[cottonpicken]

Rerun your numbers after the us bond market implodes

[SASKFARMER3]

The USA worries me big time. Print money major debt dollar over valued. Implosion.
I may be wrong on this but I feel were just on the cusp of a huge melt down.
Governments are propping up fortune 500 companies every day.
Banks are getting huge bailouts.
People are hurting.
Read that in something like 1 hour 550 Billion was taken out of US bank accounts. any body can run and make money on the way up but in bad times that's where the real managers shine.
Farming is not safe bet that's all I am trying to get out.
Read about Agrium and POT negotiating with the Chinese that's a good read. See how these guys who get paid millions to run these companies (GM FANNY ETC ETC) couldn't run a news stand.

[cottonpicken]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KV0PWOZsP5E

Youll love this Sask.


There was an electronic run on the banks a while back and yes over a few short hours 550 billion was taken,havent heard who yet,we came within a hair of meltdown.

There are lots of very scary scenarios,hopefully its a slow slide.

[redbaron]

Welcome back SASKFARMER3. Good to see your informative posts once more. May not always agree but they are worth reading and always well thought through.

Lots of issues and posts to come with spring seeding around the corner.

[redy2quit]

Thanks red, going three weeks with no Internet and just one copy of Miami herald Cancun version. I have lots of reading to get through.
Its good to be back in Canada.
Here's one New police chief in Cancun sworn in on Feb 3 2009. He was sent from Mexico City (he was a army general). As you guess he died or I should have said was killed on Feb 5th 2009 along with his driver and body guard by the cartel.
So yes its good to be home in Saskatchewan. But if I can we will go back next year again.