livestock profitability

[charliep]

The Chinese will buy a mid quality wheat for their noodle market. They buy on the basis of price versus quality characturistics once a wheat class has met their minimum quality characturistics. This is changing somewhat as they move from state buying to individual mills but this will likely remain a commodity market.

The CWB has mainly sold lower protein 2CWRS and 3CWRS to this market in the early to mid 1990's when China was a major buyer (pretty much withdrawn in recent years). Prairie spring wheats do work in the noodle market but the older varieties have not had quality characturistics desired of the noodle market (too soft a wheat/low protein) - this is changing with new ones.

Our competition has mainly been Australian Standard wheat (ASW). This wheat has been mainly been of better quality than our prairie spring wheats for the noodle market (bred to satisfy this market specifically). The second competition would be US hard red winter wheat. As a note, the CWB priced off US HRW wheat for Chinese sales when I was there (this was the competition).

If you are looking at quality characturistics to satisfy this market, the direction of our wheat program would be to develop more white wheats (likely CPS white but the new white hard red springs may fit the need). Consumers want a nice crystal white noodle. With red wheats like CPS reds and CWRS, there tends to be some flecking (some bits of the hull as I rememember it) which puts the color of the noodle off slightly.

China is a market wild card this year with expectation they will return to the market. Internal inventories are coming down. This would result in larger export demand and higher prices.

[cowman]

Without a doubt we are in a pickle. The US is the only game in town in regard to just about all of our exports. They make the rules not us. That's just how it is. Our government has two choices: Play the game(match the subsidies) or get out of the export business. Our farmers have diversified into many different crops and it's still not working.
Now consider this: What would happen if the west joined the US? We sell just about all our product there anyway. American companies own our oil companies, lumber mills,packing houses, a large part of our grain companies. We could become part of the greatest nation that has ever existed. No more metric, no more French, no more stupid gun control laws. Less taxes, more money.We could be part of a country that cares about its primary producers. I have a lot more in common with the farmer/rancher in Montana than I do with a Frenchman!

[carebear300]

Cowman I agree with you but there is only about a dozen of us old contankerous individuals that think this way, every one I talk to is scared of that big mean neighbour to the south. The American government couldn't give a dam about their farmers either but they have to keep them in business to produce cheap raw materials for their industries(ethanol,feedlots, packers,and others)

[cakadu]

Thanks for the input Charlie. Carebear, what would make it worth your while to switch to growing some of the varieties of wheat that Charlie has mentioned? What would need to happen for you and for some of the rest of our contributors?

[carebear300]

Cadadu I will try any of those varieties but only if I am guaranteed 100 percent delivery of the crop by the end of July of that crop year. It would also have to be agronomically suited to my area and I would have to be fairly certain that the returns per acre would be at least as good as hard red spring wheat. I guess maybe would have to have a premium above the expected returns for regular wheat to pay me for the extra trouble and expense of separate storage and special attention required in rotations to preserve the varieties to keep them pure.

[carebear300]

SORRY CAKADU spelled name wrong again just noticed. Get all involved into trying to put in words what I think and if I get the thoughts right the dam spelling gets screwed up it seems. I had better stick to farming composition and proper editing is not my cup of tea as you have noticed. I even had to relearn this typing after thirty years when I purchased computor one year ago.

[cakadu]

Not to worry about the spelling mistakes. We've all made them and likely will continue to do so. Thank goodness for spell check some of the time.

Curiosity is getting the better of me and I just have to ask - how do your other crops fare in terms of return and having them all sold by July of the current crop year? I'm just trying to get a handle on where you need to be in order to make a shift to something else. I listen to my in-laws who have durum sitting in the bin until the price comes up. Seems to me that it's lost money if it's just sitting in the bin.

I'm not sure I know of anything that has a 100% guarantee. Even the sure things don't always pan out.

[carebear300]

cakadu last year was a real dry year and the later crops were a little better. We seed our pulse crops earliest and they didn't do well last year. The spring wheat was seeded later and turned out relatively good for the poor growing conditions. We did way better on the wheat acres then the pulse acres but that is an unusal occurence lentils usually gross the most dollars per acre, peas usually net the most dollars per acre as a rule on our farm. We have to market every bushel we grow each year to maintain cash flow. Oh almost forgot those l6o acres of oats that we got averaged three dollars a bushel on they were definately the best but that was just a fluke. Nothing is super anymore most prices our down and expenses are higher every year it seems. Don't know if that cleared anything up but I tried.