Wheat

[dalek]

Ontario Farmer last week was reporting how Bunge and another company have been importing feed wheat from the Ukraine into Quebec and eastern Ontario.
Should start combining winter wheat here over the next week or so, the last crop we grew was a 72 bu average and this years looks close.

[charliep]

What kind of wheat do you grow?

The Ukranian wheat is likely a hard wheat with higher gluten strenghth and will replace western wheat that would normally be used in binder for different types of feed pellets. Some European wheat has come in other years but mainly in the fall. Given the shortage of feed, this maybe a more regular occurence this year.

[dalek]

We're growing soft white winter wheat. Just heard that the Ukraine is having a short crop year too so I don't know where the wheat's going to come from, heard that the Ontario Wheat Board is expecting spot feed wheat prices to exceed milling prices in some areas.

[dalek]

PS Significant areas of southwestern Ontario will probably be declaring disasters because of dry weather if it doesn't rain hard in the next 4-5 days

[kam]

I live in the "thumb" of Michigan, not far from Ontario. It has not rained here for about eight weeks. We just started wheat today and managed to get about sixty acres done. Looks to be running around ninety bushel, 12% moisture. Our farm bought a new 9650 last year, and that baby just chows down with the thirty foot head. Aside from the wheat, everything else looks terrible.

[AdamSmith]

Hi dalek,

Are you making money with 72 bushels of winter wheat?

Taking your cost structure (land costs etc.) into account and what would a break even price be roughly?

I ask because 72 bushels on the prairies will make a farmer some pretty decent money.

[charliep]

Dalek

Ukraine/eastern Europe has a smaller crop than last years monster (more normal) but will still be exporters. The need to pull in hard currency will ensure continued sales - particularly if international wheat prices rally. They can sell domestically to someone with no money or they can sell for cash on the world market.

[ianben]

My last market report says Ukrainian wheat is US$45/tonne fob due to harvest pressure
But I supposse that is a good price compared to a man with no money.
If somebody would just buy it instead of using it to price my grain. Last year it depressed the whole UK market with very little Ukrainian grain being imported.

[rodbradshaw]

That is the problem in marketing commodities. It is not the first or even the hundred millionth tonne sold but the last one that is not sold that dictates the price for the rest.The EU set aside or intervention stocks help keep your price up to a certain level. The US in the past has done the same thing paying farmers to put their grain into store to keep prices up and potential payments from government programs down. The "market" knows what is out there and approximately what they have to bid to keep stocks flowing and yet not drive prices to high. It is the same here for farmers to sell off-board as opposed to giving it to the CWB.
The only way to get prices up and hopefully net returns is to decrease production and make sure that last tonne sells for more than cost. The FOS plan talks about this but it has too many if's and too many farmers desperate to make it, given the opportunity.

[dalek]

We've never put too much effort into calculating our COP, we need the straw for the dairy side whether we make it on the wheat or not. Straw is often more valuable than the grain around here anymore.
As far as costs, we use our own seed 2 years out of 3, don't spray a thing, add about 100 lbs of nitrogen in the spring and land here sells for $6-800 an acre, rents for $40-50