Sun, September 4, 2005
Alberta's growth subverts 'Canadian Way'
By Ted Byfield
Alberta must relinquish some of its current windfall billions in oil revenues, or it will risk the destruction of the Canadian federation, says Thomas Courchene of Montreal's Institute for Research on Public Policy.
He is described as "one of Canada's leading experts on inter-provincial relations and equalization policy."
He goes on to paint what he regards as a disastrous picture.
If Alberta doesn't do this "relinquishing," it could eliminate provincial income tax. It could support its own lavish pension plan. Its employers would offer the highest salaries in the country. The consequence would be catastrophic. People from all over the country would swarm into Alberta.
He takes this view in a "discussion paper," calling for a sweeping revision in fossil fuel policy.
Albertans should heed this warning. It will prove to have been the first indication that Ottawa is about to launch a new National Energy Program.
Make careful note of the given reason. If the constitutional basis of the Canadian confederation is not immediately revised, there will begin a massive shift of the population into the West and this will risk the "destruction" of "Canada as we know it."
Through most of my life I have been watching a massive population movement in Canada.
Over the last 60 years I have seen the population of Saskatchewan grow from 895,000 in 1941 to 995,000 last year -- in short, stagnation. Manitoba went from 728,000 in 1941 to 1,170,000.
Three of the four Atlantic provinces have grown very minimally; Prince Edward Island has shrunk.
Meanwhile, the population of Ontario over the same period rose from 3.7 million to 12.3 million.
People "swarmed" out of the hinterland into Ontario.
Now, so far as I know, this phenomenon was never regarded as a "risk" to the Canadian federation.
I'm not aware that authorities such as Thomas Courchene have ever written any emergency "discussion papers" on it.
In fact, let's face it, suppressing the hinterland for the economic benefit of the two central provinces was the whole purpose and point of the Canadian federation to begin with.
That's the way it was supposed to work, and the problem now is that it's working wrong.
The population flow threatens to go into reverse. We can't have that. It would not be "the Canadian Way."
Alberta must learn to "share," Alberta having already "shared" something like $150 billion of its revenues with the rest of Canada for the last three decades.
However, all this yowling from us "oil barons," as they will describe us, " will achieve absolutely nothing. Martin has just been handed the key to a sweeping victory in the next federal election.
Here is what we can expect to happen.
*As gasoline and natural gas prices rise, there will be increasing public pressure to "do something." There will be emergency "discussions," such as the one Courchene has already begun.
Martin, reluctant as always, and after much searching of the soul --he must have one of the most searched souls in the country -- will announce a federal program designed to relieve the intolerable rise in fuel prices.
The program will amount to a direct federal grab of resource revenues, absolutely illegal under the Canadian Constitution.
Ralph Klein will howl.
Ralph Klein will threaten.
Ralph Klein will storm.
It will all come to nothing.
Martin, really searching his soul by now, will tell Alberta it has recourse to the courts, these being the same courts that Martin and his predecessor have spent years packing with their own people.
These yes-men are now going to support Alberta?
Some joke.
Paul Martin will then call a federal election where the central issue will come down to this: Do you vote for Canada or do you vote for Alberta?
He will sweep Ontario, make gains in Quebec, and bigger gains in the Atlantic provinces. This is precisely what P.E. Trudeau did repeatedly in the '70s and '80s.
It's a proven formula.
In the meantime the Conservatives will have become hopelessly fractured.
If they support their Alberta members, they will lose Ontario. If they support Ontario, they will lose heavily in the West.
"The West Wants In."
That was the slogan of the old Reform party.
In the last four general elections we have been given the answer, which is "No!"
What can we do about this?
Alberta's growth subverts 'Canadian Way'
By Ted Byfield
Alberta must relinquish some of its current windfall billions in oil revenues, or it will risk the destruction of the Canadian federation, says Thomas Courchene of Montreal's Institute for Research on Public Policy.
He is described as "one of Canada's leading experts on inter-provincial relations and equalization policy."
He goes on to paint what he regards as a disastrous picture.
If Alberta doesn't do this "relinquishing," it could eliminate provincial income tax. It could support its own lavish pension plan. Its employers would offer the highest salaries in the country. The consequence would be catastrophic. People from all over the country would swarm into Alberta.
He takes this view in a "discussion paper," calling for a sweeping revision in fossil fuel policy.
Albertans should heed this warning. It will prove to have been the first indication that Ottawa is about to launch a new National Energy Program.
Make careful note of the given reason. If the constitutional basis of the Canadian confederation is not immediately revised, there will begin a massive shift of the population into the West and this will risk the "destruction" of "Canada as we know it."
Through most of my life I have been watching a massive population movement in Canada.
Over the last 60 years I have seen the population of Saskatchewan grow from 895,000 in 1941 to 995,000 last year -- in short, stagnation. Manitoba went from 728,000 in 1941 to 1,170,000.
Three of the four Atlantic provinces have grown very minimally; Prince Edward Island has shrunk.
Meanwhile, the population of Ontario over the same period rose from 3.7 million to 12.3 million.
People "swarmed" out of the hinterland into Ontario.
Now, so far as I know, this phenomenon was never regarded as a "risk" to the Canadian federation.
I'm not aware that authorities such as Thomas Courchene have ever written any emergency "discussion papers" on it.
In fact, let's face it, suppressing the hinterland for the economic benefit of the two central provinces was the whole purpose and point of the Canadian federation to begin with.
That's the way it was supposed to work, and the problem now is that it's working wrong.
The population flow threatens to go into reverse. We can't have that. It would not be "the Canadian Way."
Alberta must learn to "share," Alberta having already "shared" something like $150 billion of its revenues with the rest of Canada for the last three decades.
However, all this yowling from us "oil barons," as they will describe us, " will achieve absolutely nothing. Martin has just been handed the key to a sweeping victory in the next federal election.
Here is what we can expect to happen.
*As gasoline and natural gas prices rise, there will be increasing public pressure to "do something." There will be emergency "discussions," such as the one Courchene has already begun.
Martin, reluctant as always, and after much searching of the soul --he must have one of the most searched souls in the country -- will announce a federal program designed to relieve the intolerable rise in fuel prices.
The program will amount to a direct federal grab of resource revenues, absolutely illegal under the Canadian Constitution.
Ralph Klein will howl.
Ralph Klein will threaten.
Ralph Klein will storm.
It will all come to nothing.
Martin, really searching his soul by now, will tell Alberta it has recourse to the courts, these being the same courts that Martin and his predecessor have spent years packing with their own people.
These yes-men are now going to support Alberta?
Some joke.
Paul Martin will then call a federal election where the central issue will come down to this: Do you vote for Canada or do you vote for Alberta?
He will sweep Ontario, make gains in Quebec, and bigger gains in the Atlantic provinces. This is precisely what P.E. Trudeau did repeatedly in the '70s and '80s.
It's a proven formula.
In the meantime the Conservatives will have become hopelessly fractured.
If they support their Alberta members, they will lose Ontario. If they support Ontario, they will lose heavily in the West.
"The West Wants In."
That was the slogan of the old Reform party.
In the last four general elections we have been given the answer, which is "No!"
What can we do about this?
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