Making ethanol from corn is the least efficient use of farmland

[shtferbrains]

Having too much electricity from renewables is a good problem to have, because electrification of everything is going to require a whole lot more electricity.

The biggest issue is it makes fossil fuel plants uneconomic because the surplus electricity is so cheap.

We will certainly find a way to use it or store it.

I always use California as a example when talking solar and renewables as it is the ideal place for solar out on the dry sunny dessert with massive amounts of cheap open space and most every day is sunny.
Huge consumer market nearby.
No significant seasonal fluctuations in supply or demand.
Near perfect situation. Solar can provide 100% of daylight demand.
But after 5pm when the highest demand of the day comes solar falls to ZERO.
If you want a solar with battery set up to charge your car when you get home they are available for about the same price as the Ford Lightning that we would like but can't afford.
So that leaves the "uneconomic" fosil fuel plants to provide for the growing electricity demand.
So how do they stay profitable if they are only being used as peakers and under utalizing their original design as providers of 24 hr baseload?

Unfortunatly the cheap solar causes significantly high net prices as you still need to provide baseload for 100% of peak demand.

The more cheap solar, the higher the actual cost.
The more they mandate storage, the more that cost will increase.

[chuckChuck]

I always use California as a example when talking solar and renewables as it is the ideal place for solar out on the dry sunny dessert with massive amounts of cheap open space and most every day is sunny.
Huge consumer market nearby.
No significant seasonal fluctuations in supply or demand.
Near perfect situation. Solar can provide 100% of daylight demand.
But after 5pm when the highest demand of the day comes solar falls to ZERO.
If you want a solar with battery set up to charge your car when you get home they are available for about the same price as the Ford Lightning that we would like but can't afford.
So that leaves the "uneconomic" fosil fuel plants to provide for the growing electricity demand.
So how do they stay profitable if they are only being used as peakers and under utalizing their original design as providers of 24 hr baseload?

Unfortunatly the cheap solar causes significantly high net prices as you still need to provide baseload for 100% of peak demand.

The more cheap solar, the higher the actual cost.
The more they mandate storage, the more that cost will increase.

California's energy supply is very diverse.

Peak loads occur primarily in the mid afternoon while solar is still working.

So unless you can show us independent numbers from California I am not going to take your word for it.

Plus you already were wrong about the peak demand. So why should we believe anything you say without evidence?

[shtferbrains]

https://www.mcecleanenergy.org/mce-news/energy-expert-duck-curve-2/

This article explains the problem and presents your arguments for solutions.

The solutions are always on the horizon.
The problem just keeps getting worse.
The solution today is fire up the fosil fuel plant and utilize them at 20 to 30% of nameplate capacity.
Duplicate baseload to make solar an option when demand is the lowest.

[chuckChuck]

And what is a cheaper way to reduce carbon emmissions?

[shtferbrains]

Get China to reduce their coal consumption.
Their new coal fired projects produce fifteen thousand times more ghg than Saskatchewan coal plants.
Sell them LNG.

[chuckChuck]

China is certainly a big issue but they are leading the world in installing renewable electricity capacity.

China and the rest of the world have to step up. Saskatchewan and Canada are part of the rest of the world.

Canada's per capita emissions are almost 2.5 times those of China.


https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5ae32253-7409-4f9a-a91d-1493ffb9777a/Renewables2021-Analysisandforecastto2026.pdf

Renewables
2021
Analysis and forecast to 2026

Additions of renewable power capacity are on track to set yet another annual
record in 2021, driven by solar PV. Almost 290 gigawatts (GW) of new
renewable power will be commissioned this year, which is 3% higher than 2020’s
already exceptional growth. Solar PV alone accounts for more than half of all
renewable power expansion in 2021, followed by wind and hydropower.
The growth of renewable capacity is forecast to accelerate in the next five
years, accounting for almost 95% of the increase in global power capacity
through 2026. We have revised up our forecast from a year earlier, as stronger
policy support and ambitious climate targets announced for COP26 outweigh the
current record commodity prices that have increased the costs of building new
wind and solar PV installations. Globally, renewable electricity capacity is forecast
to increase by over 60% between 2020 and 2026, reaching more than 4 800 GW.
This is equivalent to the current global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear
combined. Overall, China remains the leader over the next five years, accounting
for 43% of global renewable capacity growth, followed by Europe, the United
States and India. These four markets alone account for 80% of renewable capacity
expansion worldwide.

[chuckChuck]

https://fortune.com/2022/01/07/china-electric-car-ev-sales-2021-growth-tesla-byd-li-auto-xpeng-nio/

China electric vehicle sales surged 154% last year, with Warren Buffett–backed BYD topping Tesla
By
Eamon Barrett

January 7, 2022 3:15 AM CST

Electric vehicle sales in China skyrocketed 154% last year, despite a global slowdown in auto sales owing to the crunch in semiconductor supplies, as more consumers opt for greener cars. According to industry analyst ZoZo Go, electric vehicle (EV) makers sold a total of 3.3 million units in China in 2021, up from 1.3 million in 2020, and 1.2 million in 2019. According to Seeking Alpha, EV sales worldwide increased 69% in the first 11 months of the year, with China outpacing global growth.

The Shenzhen-based BYD, backed by Warren Buffett, grabbed pole position, shipping 603,783 units—up 218% on the year before. Meanwhile Tesla came in second place in China last year, selling an estimated 240,000 vehicles during 2021, accounting for 26% of the Texas-based company’s global sales.

[shtferbrains]

What about the 450 XL size new coal power plant builds?
They are world leaders in manufacturing and need all kinds of new power sources.
They arn't scrapping one system to replace it with something else. It's all required new capacity.

No virtue signaling involved. Just economics.

[shtferbrains]

Why would a country like Canada compare emissions per capita as a benchmark.
How about emisions per sq km?
Or more important emissions vs natural ability of out land and environment to sink carbon.
If the small number of people living in the Yukon have the highest per capita does that mean they are destroying the world?
Bullshit number used to shame people who should be proud of our situation and country.

[jensend]

Dwayne Andreas, then Chairman of Archer Daniels Midland, is the reason for the whole ethanol from grains industry. He contributed millions of dollars to politicians on both sides of the aisle in Washington. ADM has been the biggest beneficiary of American subsidies to ethanol. One of his most famous quotes was the competitor is our friend, the consumer is the enemy. This was from the days when they got caught price fixing amino acids in hog feed and had to pay a $100 million fine. The Informant is a movie made about the case. The whole ethanol thing has been a political farce.

[WiltonRanch]

China is certainly a big issue but they are leading the world in installing renewable electricity capacity.

China and the rest of the world have to step up. Saskatchewan and Canada are part of the rest of the world.

Canada's per capita emissions are almost 2.5 times those of China.


https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5ae32253-7409-4f9a-a91d-1493ffb9777a/Renewables2021-Analysisandforecastto2026.pdf

Renewables
2021
Analysis and forecast to 2026

Additions of renewable power capacity are on track to set yet another annual
record in 2021, driven by solar PV. Almost 290 gigawatts (GW) of new
renewable power will be commissioned this year, which is 3% higher than 2020’s
already exceptional growth. Solar PV alone accounts for more than half of all
renewable power expansion in 2021, followed by wind and hydropower.
The growth of renewable capacity is forecast to accelerate in the next five
years, accounting for almost 95% of the increase in global power capacity
through 2026. We have revised up our forecast from a year earlier, as stronger
policy support and ambitious climate targets announced for COP26 outweigh the
current record commodity prices that have increased the costs of building new
wind and solar PV installations. Globally, renewable electricity capacity is forecast
to increase by over 60% between 2020 and 2026, reaching more than 4 800 GW.
This is equivalent to the current global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear
combined. Overall, China remains the leader over the next five years, accounting
for 43% of global renewable capacity growth, followed by Europe, the United
States and India. These four markets alone account for 80% of renewable capacity
expansion worldwide.

[ATTACH]10430[/ATTACH]

That is a lame ass copout and you bloody well know it. You’re comparing apples to oranges with per capita emissions stats. If it were relevant you should move to China or India and breath cleaner air and enjoy clean water. Right? Easy to hitch your horse to the co2 wagon and scream from the rooftops but what ultimately is killing man and beast here? Clean up the dirties coming out the exhaust pipes, strive to conserve resources by reducing waste, quit dumping poison into the air rivers and land.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

A good discussion about lead and ethanol and mtbe and aromatics over on new AG talk. The ethanol alternatives are some very nasty products.

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1054511&mid=9610350#M9610350

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Not about ethanol, but about how to deal with intermittent energy. Chuck likes models and reliable sources, so this should be approved.
To paraphrase, the best location for wind and solar, Texas, would require 4 months storage to deal with wind droughts, or 8 months for solar alone. Now imagine what the numbers are up here where we get winter? Turns out the 3 months figure I've been using, was far too conservative.

In a new modeling study in the journal Patterns, Lall and Columbia PhD student Yash Amonkar, show that solar and wind potential vary widely over days and weeks, not to mention months to years. They focused on Texas, which leads the country in generating electricity from wind power and is the fifth-largest solar producer. Texas also boasts a self-contained grid that's as big as many countries', said Lall, making it an ideal laboratory for charting the promise and peril of renewable energy systems.

Drawing on 70 years of historic wind and solar-power data, the researchers built an AI model to predict the probability of a network-scale "drought," when daily production of renewables fell below a target threshold. Under a threshold set at the 30th percentile, when roughly a third of all days are low-production days, the researchers found that Texas could face a daily energy drought for up to four months straight.

Batteries would be unable to compensate for a drought of this length, said Lall, and if the system relied on solar energy alone, the drought could be expected to last twice as long -- for eight months. "These findings suggest that energy planners will have to consider alternate ways of storing or generating electricity, or dramatically increasing the capacity of their renewable systems," he said.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/04/220412161551.htm

But let's keep converting farmland to solar, and block drilling for oil.

[blackpowder]

It's a shell game. Sucker born every minute.

[shtferbrains]

It's a shell game. Sucker born every minute.

Can't agree with that.
That would indicate they know the outcome.
Every time it becomes obvious that their goals have zero chance of being achieved the double down with the same game plan.
That revolves around killing oil and gas but no details on what replaces it in a totaly unrealistic time frame.