Serious stuff in Ukraine

[WiltonRanch]

What has been said if any tactical nukes are used will mean the complete destruction of all Russian military in Ukraine and Crimea by nato and USA. Maybe Russia will then show off their su57 if it actually exists. What seems more plausible is Russia will try to blow up all power infrastructure in the winter to make Ukrainians suffer. That’s a mongol tactic which Russian military doctrine is all about.

[sumdumguy]

I thought US, England, Germany, etc had such great intelligence and technological strategic weaponry, how could they not have put a lid on Putine yet?

[WiltonRanch]

I thought US, England, Germany, etc had such great intelligence and technological strategic weaponry, how could they not have put a lid on Putine yet?

It’s a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation. They go in too soon you turn more against you. Go in later after the situation is gets worse but more are supportive. This deal will end with Putin taken out and a humiliating retreat or a full scale war.

[shtferbrains]

Putin is sending soviet military surplus still with 1970 era t-72 tanks which wasnt a bad tank 40 to 50 yrs ago. Still takes 3 to 5 javelin hits at 175k each ...wait till they bring In the new t-14 armata tanks or the new su-57 fixed wing aircraft. truth is... nato is fighting soviet era technology while depleting there own industrial war machine. The real military is waiting for when the real shit hits the fan.

Didn't Putin's best friend's forever trade those SU-57'S and T-80 tanks in on some really,really nice yachts?

Nobody told Putin.
He didn't care as long as the kickback came.

[TOM4CWB]

Didn't Putin's best friend's forever trade those SU-57'S and T-80 tanks in on some really,really nice yachts?

Nobody told Putin.
He didn't care as long as the kickback came.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/our-children-are-not-fertilizer-why-protests-in-chechnya-and-dagestan-should-trouble-moscow-172813404.html

'Our children are not fertilizer': Why protests in Chechnya and Dagestan should trouble Moscow
Alexander Nazaryan
Alexander Nazaryan·Senior White House Correspondent
Mon, October 3, 2022, 11:28 AM

WASHINGTON — When the Russian invasion of Ukraine first began, Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov vowed loyalty and military support for the Kremlin. In bellicose (and frequently deceptive) social media posts, Kadyrov and his military commanders sought to use legends of Chechen military ferocity — embedded deep in the Russian psyche — as a countermeasure to the images of a valiant Ukrainian resistance.

But when it came to sending more Chechen young men to the front last week, Kadyrov made a show of defying the Kremlin, which had just announced a “partial mobilization” of 300,000 troops. Chechen conscription targets had been “overfulfilled,” he claimed, in what was widely seen as an effort to blunt popular discontent over a military operation whose failures could no longer be disguised with blustery Telegram messages.

Russia’s war, fought by many Muslims and poor people

Discontent over the draft has extended beyond Chechnya. While many protests have taken place in the northern Caucasus, there have also been demonstrations in the Siberian city of Yakutsk and even in distant Vladivostok, near the border with North Korea.

Fury at the mobilization has been especially pronounced in Dagestan, which neighbors Chechnya and shares many of its cultural attributes. “I think Dagestan is going to become a hot spot for anti-mobilization protests going forward,” Russia expert Samuel Ramani told Yahoo News. “Unrest, sometimes, in one autonomous region can extend to others. These protests can move asymmetrically.”

“The first to be pushed to the front will be poor boys from Tatarstan, Buryatia, Chechnya, Dagestan and other minority regions,” London-based Russia analyst Jeff Hawn wrote on Twitter.

The mobilization highlights a reality that has become impossible to ignore. While being fought on Russia’s behalf, the war is devastating mostly poor families, many of them from Muslim or Turkic backgrounds, far from the nodes of power in Moscow and St. Petersburg, where wealthier families have long used connections and bribes to absolve sons of military service.

Despite the Kremlin’s Slavocentric emphasis, Russia is a multinational state; though it is dominated by population centers in the country’s west, the 5,600 miles from its European holdings to its Pacific coast contain a rich panoply of ethnicities, religions and cultures.


“Why are a lot of Muslims going to the army this way? Because they're poor," Paul Goble, a former high-ranking State Department expert on Soviet and Eurasian affairs, told Yahoo News. Enlisting men from dispossessed areas to act as replacement forces in the Ukrainian war seemed to involve little risk for an administration thoroughly oriented toward the country’s power elite.

Goble describes the Kremlin’s approach to the mobilization as having been conducted by Russian President Vladimir Putin under a cynical premise: “How do I carry this out so that few people in Moscow and St. Petersburg get rounded up?”

Yet the extent of the recent protests appears to suggest that the Kremlin misjudged how its mobilization order would be received in the areas it targeted. "This partial mobilization is not well planned and is likely to backfire," Goble told Yahoo News. “This is a classic Soviet approach. They should know better." In shows of solidarity, Muscovites and Petersburgers have also taken to the streets, where they have frequently encountered rough police tactics.

Instead of evenly distributing the war’s most obvious hardship — that is, military service, with its resulting risk of injury and death, especially in a military as poorly trained, prepared and led as Russia’s — the Kremlin instead concentrated those hardships in areas with few economic prospects and deepening social despair."... very interesting background... on Putin.. the Russian KGB bully...

War is always horrible... this one is particularly futile and pointless...

[shtferbrains]

In Viet Nam the evened that all out when the poor daftees took to fragging the privileged young officers that thought they were cannon fodder.

[furrowtickler]

Putin is a complete bastard , no doubt
But Zelenski is in the same fold as the Clintons , Epptstien , Obama , Trudeau . Schwab and Soros club …..don’t kid yourself even a bit

[helmach]

Didn't Putin's best friend's forever trade those SU-57'S and T-80 tanks in on some really,really nice yachts?

Nobody told Putin.
He didn't care as long as the kickback came.

?? explain please ??

[shtferbrains]

When Putin was making noise about rebuilding a mighty modern military his crony friends who got the contracts were all building multiple yachts that look like cruise ships.
He can roll lots of iron in but troopers have no boots.

Putin is not doing a rope-a-dope or sandbaging while he saves his best for last.
He can't go all in in Ukraine with everything he has or he is unprotected at home.
Think about all the dirty little far away wars the US wish the had never got into.
First Gulf War in and out like super heros.
Every other they
just got sucked deeper and deeper.
Enemy doesn't have to engage under your terms.
The longer it lasts the more futile it looks to the invading troopers.
End up working out of fire bases. Never enough troops to truly protect all the territory.
Same old same old.

[helmach]

When Putin was making noise about rebuilding a mighty modern military his crony friends who got the contracts were all building multiple yachts that look like cruise ships.
He can roll lots of iron in but troopers have no boots.

Putin is not doing a rope-a-dope or sandbaging while he saves his best for last.
He can't go all in in Ukraine with everything he has or he is unprotected at home.
Think about all the dirty little far away wars the US wish the had never got into.
First Gulf War in and out like super heros.
Every other they
just got sucked deeper and deeper.
Enemy doesn't have to engage under your terms.
The longer it lasts the more futile it looks to the invading troopers.
End up working out of fire bases. Never enough troops to truly protect all the territory.
Same old same old.

goes to show you the absolute precision the first gulf war was orchestrated with when the US ACTUALLY WANTED TO PUT AN END TO SOMETHING. what was it again? oh yes oil was threatened not to be sold on usd. boom 3 days later its back selling on usd.

All Wars are bankers wars...

[WiltonRanch]

goes to show you the absolute precision the first gulf war was orchestrated with when the US ACTUALLY WANTED TO PUT AN END TO SOMETHING. what was it again? oh yes oil was threatened not to be sold on usd. boom 3 days later its back selling on usd.

All Wars are bankers wars...

How do you explain Putin invading Ukraine and blowing up his gas lines to Europe? Hussein invaded Kuwait part of the UAE and ally with Saudi Arabia. Sure it was about oil and power in the region carried out by Hussein. Made no sense why he did that but neither does Putin going into Ukraine with an ill equipped army or poisoning his detractors. Hitler made no sense trying to pick a fight with Stalin and engage in a two front war so soon as he did. Makes a good argument of all 20th century dictators however long in power end up losing scope of reality and carrying out wild plans which ultimately fail or incur huge costs to their own people and countries. If you can tidy this all up and blame the USA and oil what explains Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, Stalin, Mao, or Genghis Khan. Did Khan figure the USA wanted his oil reserves in 1300? Even in our in country what has unfolded with our current prime minister being in power 7 long years and the dictator powers which the PMO has if you want to use them, has abused these with the emergency measures act and covering up his dirty dealings. So imagine you’re the smartest monkey in a naturally corrupt and shaky country and you fight and stab your way to the top and consolidate your power to the point that everyone around you is wholeheartedly supporting you or afraid to tell you the truth. It’s not hard to lose sense of reality and with sycophants around you feeding your aspirations in hopes of getting ahead or not being killed it turns into a secluded echo chamber.

[TOM4CWB]

Didn't Putin's best friend's forever trade those SU-57'S and T-80 tanks in on some really,really nice yachts?

Nobody told Putin.
He didn't care as long as the kickback came.

The Associated Press
Thu, October 6, 2022, 12:12 AM
Even as the Kremlin moved to absorb parts of Ukraine in a sharp escalation of the conflict, the Russian military suffered new defeats that highlighted its deep problems on the battlefield and opened rifts at the top of the Russian government.

The setbacks have badly dented the image of a powerful Russian military and added to the tensions surrounding an ill-planned mobilization. They have also fueled fighting among Kremlin insiders and left Russian President Vladimir Putin increasingly cornered.

Here is a look at the latest Russian losses, some of the reasons behind them and the potential consequences.

STRING OF DEFEATS IN THE NORTHEAST, SOUTH

Relying on Western-supplied weapons, Ukraine has followed up on last month's gains in the northeastern Kharkiv region by pressing deeper into occupied areas and forcing Russian troops to withdraw from the city of Lyman, a key logistical hub.

The Ukrainian army has also unleashed a broad counteroffensive in the south, capturing a string of villages on the western bank of the Dnieper River and advancing toward the city of Kherson.

The Ukrainian gains in the Kherson region followed relentless strikes on the two main crossings over the Dnieper that made them unusable and forced Russian troops on the western bank of the Dnieper to rely exclusively on pontoon crossings, which also have been repeatedly hit by the Ukrainians.

Phillips P. O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, predicted more Russian failures in Kherson, noting that it's “hard to stabilize a line when your logistics are stretched, your troops are exhausted and your opponent is much, much smarter.”

Pressed against the wide river and suffering severe supply shortages, Russian troops face a looming defeat that could set the stage for a potential Ukrainian push to reclaim control of the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

MILITARY SHORTAGES AND COMMAND WOES

Military reporters and bloggers embedded with Russian troops in Ukraine have painted a bleak picture of an ill-equipped and poorly organized force under incompetent command.

With the war in its eighth month, the Russian military suffers from an acute shortage of personnel, lack of coordination between units and unstable supply lines.

Many Russian units also have low morale, a depressed mood that contrasts sharply with Ukraine’s well-motivated forces.

Unlike the Ukrainian military, which has relied on intelligence data provided by the U.S. and its NATO allies to select and strike targets, the Russian army has been plagued by poor intelligence.

When Russian intelligence spots a Ukrainian target, the military engages in a long process of securing clearance to strike it, which often drags on until the target disappears.

Russian war correspondents particularly bemoaned the shortage of drones and noted that Iranian-supplied drones have not been used for maximum effectiveness due to the poor selection of targets.

KREMLIN CALLS UP MORE TROOPS, ANNEXES TERRITORY

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to the Ukrainian counteroffensive by ordering a partial military mobilization, which aims to round up at least 300,000 reservists to beef up forces along the 1,000-kilometer front line in Ukraine.

At the start of the invasion, Ukraine declared a sweeping mobilization, with a goal of forming a 1 million-member military. Russia until that moment had tried to win the war with a shrinking contingent of volunteer soldiers. The U.S. put the initial invading force at up to 200,000, and some Western estimates put Russian casualties as high as 80,000 dead, wounded and captured.

While the hawkish circles in Moscow welcomed the mobilization as long overdue, hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled abroad to avoid being recruited, and protests flared up across the country, raising new challenges to the Kremlin.

Fresh recruits posted images showing them being forced to sleep on the floor or even in the open air. Some reported being handed rusty weapons and told to buy medical kits and other basic supplies themselves. In a tacit recognition of supply problems, Putin dismissed a deputy defense minister in charge of military logistics.

The mobilization offers no quick fix for Russia's military woes. It will take months for the new recruits to train and form battle-ready units.

Putin then upped the ante by abruptly annexing the occupied regions of Ukraine and voicing readiness to use “all means available” to protect them, a blunt reference to Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

RIFTS OPEN UP AT THE TOP

In an unprecedented sign of infighting in the higher echelons of the government, the Kremlin-backed regional leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, has scathingly criticized the top military brass, accusing them of incompetence and nepotism.

Kadyrov blamed Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin for failing to secure supplies and reinforcements for his troops that led to their retreat from Lyman. He declared that the general deserves to be stripped of his rank and sent to the front line as a private to “wash off his shame with his blood.”

Kadyrov also directly accused Russia's top military officer, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, of covering up Lapin's blunders — a pointed attack that fueled speculation that the Chechen leader might have forged an alliance with other hawkish members of the Russian elite against the top military leadership.

In a blunt statement, Kadyrov also urged the Kremlin to consider using low-yield nuclear weapons against Ukraine to reverse the course of the war, a call that appeared to reflect the growing popularity of the idea among the Kremlin hawks.

In a show of continuing support for Kadyrov, Putin promoted him to colonel general to mark his birthday, a move certain to anger the top brass. And while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described Kadyrov’s statement as overly emotional, he strongly praised the Chechen leader’s role in the fighting and his troops’ valor.

In another sign of intensifying dissent at the top, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a millionaire businessman dubbed “Putin's chef,” lashed out at the governor of St. Petersburg, charging that his failure to provide assistance for Prigozhin's Wagner private security company amounts to supporting Ukraine.

Some other members of the Russian elite offered quick support for Kadyrov and Prigozhin, who have increasingly served as frontmen for the hawkish circles in Moscow.

Retired Lt. Gen. Andrei Gurulev, a senior member of the lower house of Russian parliament, strongly backed the Chechen leader, saying that the Russian defeat in Lyman was rooted in the top brass' desire to report only good news to Putin.

“It’s a problem of total lies and positive reports from top to bottom,” he said."