https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/covid-misinformation-thousands-of-deaths-report
COVID misinformation may have caused thousands of deaths in Canada: report
The estimates are conservative because they don’t capture all the 'flow-on consequences' of misinformation, such as postponed surgeries, the authors say
Sharon Kirkey
Published Jan 26, 2023 • Last updated 2 hours ago • 5 minute read
Beliefs that COVID-19 is exaggerated or an outright hoax, that vaccines can alter a person’s DNA or cause other “covered-up problems†cost Canada an estimated 2,800 lives and thousands of hospitalizations over nine months of the pandemic, according to a new report.
The estimates, based on models, are conservative, the authors said, because they don’t capture all the “flow-on consequences†of misinformation, such as postponed surgeries, doctors’ billings, the cost of treating long COVID or “the social unrest and moral injury to healthcare workers.â€
“Misinformation is an urgent societal concern that affects us all,†reads the expert panel report from the Council of Canadian Academies, the latest group to raise alarms over an “infodemic†of falsehoods that spread as widely and rapidly as COVID-19.
According to the far-ranging report, between March and November 2021, misinformation helped sway an estimated 2.4 million people in Canada to delay or refuse to get vaccinated against COVID. Had they been vaccinated as soon as they became eligible, by the end of November 2021, there would have been nearly 200,000 fewer cases of COVID and 13,000 fewer hospitalizations.
Who or what is to blame? A “perfect storm of actors,†Alex Himelfarb, the expert panel’s chair, told a media briefing Wednesday.
They include bad-faith actors on social media; conspiracy theories that offer up something, or someone to blame; the politicization of misinformation; and a “multi-decades long decline in trust,†in one another and institutions that were seen in the past to be reliable sources of information, Himelfarab said.
“Myth and misperception, lies and deception are not new — they’re probably as old as human communication,†said Himelfarb, a former Clerk of the Privy Council and professor of sociology at the University of New Brunswick.
“But something different is afoot,†he said. Pundits have labelled ours a “post-truth†era, he said, “where the very idea of truth seems to be under attack, and where misinformation is tied in with ideology and identity and arouses great passions.â€
As part of their report, Fault Lines, the 13-member panel set out to estimate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. How much faster would uptake have been if there was no misinformation? What did it mean for infections and deaths?
They reviewed peer-reviewed publications, government information and statistics and media reports. They also commissioned a model, plugging in “real world†data on the number of vaccinations, cases, ICU visits and deaths between March 1 and Nov. 30, 2021.
The model tracked everyone aged 12 and older over two waves of COVID.
It also drew on data from an Abacus survey at the time that found that 14 per cent of adult Canadians were either vaccine-reluctant (seven per cent) or vaccine-refusers (seven per cent.)
Reluctant people reported lower trust in government, preferred to avoid vaccines in general and questioned how quickly COVID-19 vaccines were produced and approved.
Among the vaccine refusers, 85 per cent believed that vaccine harms are “covered-up†and 73 per cent believed COVID is fake or overblown.
Overall, the survey suggested that 2.1 million Canadians agreed with COVID misinformation beliefs.
The panel then looked at different hypothetical scenarios, including what happens to COVID vaccination rates and case numbers if the proportion of people who believed COVID is a hoax or vaccines caused hidden dangers were vaccinated as soon as they became eligible.
According to their analysis, if those who believed COVID was a hoax had been vaccinated once eligible, over 2.3 million additional people in Canada would have been vaccinated, resulting in roughly 198,000 fewer cases, 13,000 fewer hospitalizations, 3,500 fewer people needing intensive care, $300 million saved in hospital costs and 2,800 fewer deaths.
The report doesn’t contain recommendations. The CCA’s reports don’t, by design. The goal is to inform policy, not to direct government, a spokesperson said.
But misinformation matters, Himelfarb said, because an “abundance of evidence†shows it causes preventable illness, preventable death and makes people “vulnerable to financial exploitation.â€
It also holds. “It’s sticky,†he said. An Abacus poll in June 2021 found that 19 per cent of 1,500 adults surveyed, the equivalent of 5.6 million adults, believe “COVID vaccines have killed many people which has been covered up.†Eleven per cent believed the vaccines contain secret chips “designed to monitor and control human behavior.â€
But scientific research is also fallible, the panel report notes. “Misinformation can be the product of systemic failures in science and medicine, and in the communication of scientific knowledge and research findings,†it reads. Finding that don’t replicate and weak methodologies are among the reasons why “no one study can be treated as definitive.â€
Some claims represented initially as “information,†become “misinformation†as new knowledge emerges, the report said.
Maya Goldenberg, a University of Guleph philosophy professor and expert in vaccine hesitancy, said public institutions that are supposed to keep the public safe have a responsibility to foster and maintain trust. “A lot of people felt abandoned during this pandemic — public outreach did not reach them; their needs were not met — and the response was to turn away and reject all public health communications, and even to respond and protest angrily,†Goldenberg said.
The panel is committed to the freedom of expression, Himelfarb said. But things can be done to combat misinformation, he said.
Media platforms could be more transparent “about the algorithms that may actually promote misinformation,†because misinformation gets traffic. More could be done to help people better “identify and reject†misinformation, he said, and promote digital literacy and critical thinking, starting with young school-age kids. Leaders must learn how to better communicate health and science information, including finding “trusted messengers†who can reach diverse communities and be open about uncertainty.
Like every model, the model is only as good as the data that went into it, Himelfarb said. But he said the estimates are conservative, they only focus on the two waves of COVID before Omicron emerged and they only looked at a narrow range of costs.
“It’s pretty clear that tens of thousands of hospitalizations did occur because of misinformation,†he said.
The non-partisan panel tried deliberately to stay out of politics. But it matters when political leaders “endorse (and) further promote misinformation,†Himelfarb said. “It accelerates the spread, it matters, it makes it harder to correct.â€
“When it becomes tied up with identity and ideology, political leaders will often look to misinformation as a mean of building their coalition. It has become a tool in politics,†he said, and a threat to democracy.
Panel member Timothy Caulfield said the “grim data†were disappointing, but not surprising. “Canada has a reputation of being perhaps a little bit more removed from the polarizing discourse that permeates our neighbour to the south,†said Caulfield, a University of Alberta professor of health law and policy.
“But as we’ve seen over the past three years, we’re not immune to the harms that misinformation brings.â€
COVID misinformation may have caused thousands of deaths in Canada: report
The estimates are conservative because they don’t capture all the 'flow-on consequences' of misinformation, such as postponed surgeries, the authors say
Sharon Kirkey
Published Jan 26, 2023 • Last updated 2 hours ago • 5 minute read
Beliefs that COVID-19 is exaggerated or an outright hoax, that vaccines can alter a person’s DNA or cause other “covered-up problems†cost Canada an estimated 2,800 lives and thousands of hospitalizations over nine months of the pandemic, according to a new report.
The estimates, based on models, are conservative, the authors said, because they don’t capture all the “flow-on consequences†of misinformation, such as postponed surgeries, doctors’ billings, the cost of treating long COVID or “the social unrest and moral injury to healthcare workers.â€
“Misinformation is an urgent societal concern that affects us all,†reads the expert panel report from the Council of Canadian Academies, the latest group to raise alarms over an “infodemic†of falsehoods that spread as widely and rapidly as COVID-19.
According to the far-ranging report, between March and November 2021, misinformation helped sway an estimated 2.4 million people in Canada to delay or refuse to get vaccinated against COVID. Had they been vaccinated as soon as they became eligible, by the end of November 2021, there would have been nearly 200,000 fewer cases of COVID and 13,000 fewer hospitalizations.
Who or what is to blame? A “perfect storm of actors,†Alex Himelfarb, the expert panel’s chair, told a media briefing Wednesday.
They include bad-faith actors on social media; conspiracy theories that offer up something, or someone to blame; the politicization of misinformation; and a “multi-decades long decline in trust,†in one another and institutions that were seen in the past to be reliable sources of information, Himelfarab said.
“Myth and misperception, lies and deception are not new — they’re probably as old as human communication,†said Himelfarb, a former Clerk of the Privy Council and professor of sociology at the University of New Brunswick.
“But something different is afoot,†he said. Pundits have labelled ours a “post-truth†era, he said, “where the very idea of truth seems to be under attack, and where misinformation is tied in with ideology and identity and arouses great passions.â€
As part of their report, Fault Lines, the 13-member panel set out to estimate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. How much faster would uptake have been if there was no misinformation? What did it mean for infections and deaths?
They reviewed peer-reviewed publications, government information and statistics and media reports. They also commissioned a model, plugging in “real world†data on the number of vaccinations, cases, ICU visits and deaths between March 1 and Nov. 30, 2021.
The model tracked everyone aged 12 and older over two waves of COVID.
It also drew on data from an Abacus survey at the time that found that 14 per cent of adult Canadians were either vaccine-reluctant (seven per cent) or vaccine-refusers (seven per cent.)
Reluctant people reported lower trust in government, preferred to avoid vaccines in general and questioned how quickly COVID-19 vaccines were produced and approved.
Among the vaccine refusers, 85 per cent believed that vaccine harms are “covered-up†and 73 per cent believed COVID is fake or overblown.
Overall, the survey suggested that 2.1 million Canadians agreed with COVID misinformation beliefs.
The panel then looked at different hypothetical scenarios, including what happens to COVID vaccination rates and case numbers if the proportion of people who believed COVID is a hoax or vaccines caused hidden dangers were vaccinated as soon as they became eligible.
According to their analysis, if those who believed COVID was a hoax had been vaccinated once eligible, over 2.3 million additional people in Canada would have been vaccinated, resulting in roughly 198,000 fewer cases, 13,000 fewer hospitalizations, 3,500 fewer people needing intensive care, $300 million saved in hospital costs and 2,800 fewer deaths.
The report doesn’t contain recommendations. The CCA’s reports don’t, by design. The goal is to inform policy, not to direct government, a spokesperson said.
But misinformation matters, Himelfarb said, because an “abundance of evidence†shows it causes preventable illness, preventable death and makes people “vulnerable to financial exploitation.â€
It also holds. “It’s sticky,†he said. An Abacus poll in June 2021 found that 19 per cent of 1,500 adults surveyed, the equivalent of 5.6 million adults, believe “COVID vaccines have killed many people which has been covered up.†Eleven per cent believed the vaccines contain secret chips “designed to monitor and control human behavior.â€
But scientific research is also fallible, the panel report notes. “Misinformation can be the product of systemic failures in science and medicine, and in the communication of scientific knowledge and research findings,†it reads. Finding that don’t replicate and weak methodologies are among the reasons why “no one study can be treated as definitive.â€
Some claims represented initially as “information,†become “misinformation†as new knowledge emerges, the report said.
Maya Goldenberg, a University of Guleph philosophy professor and expert in vaccine hesitancy, said public institutions that are supposed to keep the public safe have a responsibility to foster and maintain trust. “A lot of people felt abandoned during this pandemic — public outreach did not reach them; their needs were not met — and the response was to turn away and reject all public health communications, and even to respond and protest angrily,†Goldenberg said.
The panel is committed to the freedom of expression, Himelfarb said. But things can be done to combat misinformation, he said.
Media platforms could be more transparent “about the algorithms that may actually promote misinformation,†because misinformation gets traffic. More could be done to help people better “identify and reject†misinformation, he said, and promote digital literacy and critical thinking, starting with young school-age kids. Leaders must learn how to better communicate health and science information, including finding “trusted messengers†who can reach diverse communities and be open about uncertainty.
Like every model, the model is only as good as the data that went into it, Himelfarb said. But he said the estimates are conservative, they only focus on the two waves of COVID before Omicron emerged and they only looked at a narrow range of costs.
“It’s pretty clear that tens of thousands of hospitalizations did occur because of misinformation,†he said.
The non-partisan panel tried deliberately to stay out of politics. But it matters when political leaders “endorse (and) further promote misinformation,†Himelfarb said. “It accelerates the spread, it matters, it makes it harder to correct.â€
“When it becomes tied up with identity and ideology, political leaders will often look to misinformation as a mean of building their coalition. It has become a tool in politics,†he said, and a threat to democracy.
Panel member Timothy Caulfield said the “grim data†were disappointing, but not surprising. “Canada has a reputation of being perhaps a little bit more removed from the polarizing discourse that permeates our neighbour to the south,†said Caulfield, a University of Alberta professor of health law and policy.
“But as we’ve seen over the past three years, we’re not immune to the harms that misinformation brings.â€
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