Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s

[chuckChuck]

Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s

Marc-André Parisien, Quinn E. Barber, Mathieu L. Bourbonnais, Lori D. Daniels, Mike D. Flannigan, Robert W. Gray, Kira M. Hoffman, Piyush Jain, Scott L. Stephens, Steve W. Taylor & Ellen Whitman

Communications Earth & Environment volume 4, Article number: 309 (2023)

Abstract

In the province of British Columbia, Canada, four of the most severe wildfire seasons of the last century occurred in the past 7 years: 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023. To investigate trends in wildfire activity and fire-conducive climate, we conducted an analysis of mapped wildfire perimeters and annual climate data for the period of 1919–2021. Results show that after a century-long decline, fire activity increased from 2005 onwards, coinciding with a sharp reversal in the wetting trend of the 20th century. Even as precipitation levels remain high, moisture deficits have increased due to rapid warming and increased evaporative demand. Bottom-up factors further influence fire activity, as the legacy of past wildfires, insect outbreaks, and land-use practices continually influence fire regimes. The compound effects of climate-induced moisture changes and altered fuels now force British Columbians to confront the harsh reality of more frequent years of intense and prolonged wildfire activity.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00977-1

[fjlip]

Forests MUST burn to renew...been happening forever.

[binthere]

And the same as those neglected dams and dikes in Lybia and prairie suma region so it is with neglected forest management. You can't blame it on climate change. Try all you want.

[chuckChuck]

"Even as precipitation levels remain high, moisture deficits have increased due to rapid warming and increased evaporative demand."

"four of the most severe wildfire seasons of the last century occurred in the past 7 years: 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023." !!!!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

There is a very reliable marketing adage. high prices cure high prices, and low prices cure low prices.

Apply that to forest fires and the exact same thing applies. A period of low forest fires will build up the fuel which will cure the period of low forest fires. Resulting in a period of high forest fires consuming the excess fuel, which will give a deficit of fuel resulting in a period of low forest fires, repeated ad infinitum. Intermixed with the eternal climate cycles.
The current cycle happens to have the additional bonus of the entirety beneficial higher levels of CO2 resulting in faster growth of forests and more area of forest, meaning even more fuel.

To visualize the idiocy of Chuck's forest fire theory, extend it out far into the future. So under his theory, every year will be worse than the previous year, burning more acres. Ignoring the obviously incorrect assumption that this climate cycle would continue on abated forever, you realize that exponential growth of forest fires such as he promises cannot continue forever in a finite world.
Meanwhile, the US is experiencing one of the lowest years in its history for number of acres burned by forest fires. Not sure how that fits into the agenda of global warming. Looks more like cherry picking one country and one year and one metric.

[SmallTimeOperator]

Wildfires are part of the natural forest cycle. Only worse now as the maturity of the forests and the amount of deadfall has reached a tipping point, where it’s time to renew. Hence fire. And big fires because humans have been trying to stop them for the last 100 years or so. It’s so bad that in the Banff area, I see they are cutting up deadfall’s and burning them in the wintertime to try to reduce the risk of fire in the summer.

The smoke blocks out the Sun and cools the atmosphere. It can also increase precipitation if moist air comes along as water vapour will attach to particles in the air. Isn’t that what you want Chuck?? Or is cooling bad? Warming bad? More rain bad? Less rain bad? Everything is bad?

It’s climate. It never stays the same. 4 seasons is the only sure thing. There is millions of combinations of temperatures and precipitation in season, in a year, hence I will agree, the climate has always been changing. Remember, mile thick ice, right here, and no fossil fuels. Why is it gone?

[blackpowder]

Tisk tisk. There you go seeing the whole picture again.

[sumdumguy]

More BS from Chuck and the Up Chuckers. 🙄

[ajl]

The only question I have is: how many wildfires are due to federally sponsored arson? After premier Smith sent out Arson investigators the fires shifted to BC and the territories.

[shtferbrains]

Some yrs climate change is real bad.

Some yrs it goes away?