Minority Government

[rsomer]

At least this cow was not announced on a Friday.

Live cattle futures today recovered all of Mondays losses and it is anyones guess what will happen in the markets tomorrow.

Mexico has closed its border to U.S. beef again.

The USDA would have run a second rapid test on the first of these most recent BSE suspects. I presume the second test was also positive or some kind of announcement would likely have been made. At least one of the rapid tests the USDA uses has never had a false positive result, therefore I would not be surprised that once the final results are announced later this week the animal will indeed have BSE.

It will be interesting to see if this opens the border or not. It is very unlikely both these animals could be from Canada. If the U.S. finds an indigenous BSE cow will that prompt them to open the border since our herd health status would be equal? Or will it prompt the U.S. to take further protectionist measures to protect the pocketbooks of their producers.

[bombay_43]

So here comes my big question!

Why are we still importing US beef, when Mexico closed the borders based on these findings? Maybe a taste of their own medicine, would do the USA a world of good!??

[kato]

We should know more this afternoon. They are having a news conference.

Someone on Ranchers.net said that DTN and Feedstuffs have already said the result on the first cow was negative, but I'd like to know how they found that out.

If it's a positive American cow, R-Calf will sure have egg on it's face. Those 'consumer groups' they have gotten into bed with will haul out all their old anti-Canadian rhetoric about unsafe beef and thump them over the heads with it.

One thing in our favour (on both sides of the border) is that between our election, and the goings on in Iraq, the media hasn't blown this whole thing out of proportion for a change.

[rsomer]

I, for one, hope our government decides to leave the border alone. While Canadians would be justified if we closed our border to the U.S. like Mexico has, it would not do our industry any good. Canada certainly does not want to follow the U.S. example of protectionism. This calls for leadership based on science.

The procedures the CFIA put in place January 22, 2004, and again on April 23, 2004 protect our consumers and serve as an example that the U.S. could emulate. These procedures include allowing:
· exemptions on U.S. live cattle imported into Canada for immediate slaughter
· Meat products of animals of the sub-family Bovinae younger than 30 months of age from which the distal ileum has been removed.
· Feeder Calves
· Meat products originating in Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Uruguay, Canada or Brazil that are eligible for importation into Canada and that are processed in the US.
· Edible beef liver
· Meat products intended to be used for personal consumption (less than five kilograms in total).
· Milk and milk derivatives.
· Meat products to be transported to a community in the United States where the only practical transportation route for the Meat products is either a land or water route through Canada as determined by the CFIA
· Food containing meat products in insignificant quantity.

See: http://www.inspection.gc.ca/english/anima/heasan/disemala/bseesb/americ/imprestricte.shtml

I think the direction we want to go is to see the U.S. follow the Canadian example rather than Canada follow the path the Americans have taken which is not only protectionist but undermines consumer confidence in their domestic beef.

[jensend]

rsomer - i agree with you but i think there has to be a time limit in which the americans have to resond or our strategy has failed and we have to change strategies.

[kato]

Exactly! You are 100% right.

Either lead or get out of the way. We need to take the high road on this one.

[whiteface]

Rsomer I do appreciate your cool headed, detailed approach to addressing our problem. I too love "taking the high road and leading by example." Which is why I also would love to leave the whole border thing alone and focus on our own problem. Lets build and test, now more than ever. They will somehow try to use these 2 ( and subsequently more) against us. I for the life of me cannot see that a "US" case will ever surface. This is a left handed way to attack us further. They know we're dead serious about testing and exporting and they don't have measures in place that we do ( the traceback, the needless killing of thousands of cows that even breathed on our BSE case ) and they absolutly will have egg on their face if we convince ANYONE to take our meat that won't take theirs. The pressure on them to open the border to us is huge. "Science", NAFTA challenge, needing to set an example for Japan and Mexico, they'll do anything to "prove" why they shouldn't... how about trying to "prove" on "Canadas behalf" how many "diseased" cows are up here because of course we sure as hell don't check or do anything for that matter as well as the US. R-calf will be sure and tell the world that.

[rsomer]

I believe it is just a matter of when, not if, the U.S. finds a BSE cow they have to call their own. Just what the U.S. will do in regards to opening our border after they find their cow will remain to be seen. I don't think we will have to wait very long to find out.

CME Live Cattle Futures closed yesterday at $87.87, opened this morning at $85 and are trading at $86.075.

[kato]

USDA webcast at 4:30 Eastern daylight time on usda.gov.

[charliep]

Just a note that today is also the USDA release of their spring seeded crop acreage and June 1 Stocks report.

Today's price direction (down) is a good indication of the markets interpretation.