Minority Government

[rsomer]

I understand BWCs numbers to be correct although one of the five rapid tests the USDA uses has never had a false positive.

I don't think the U.S. has everything to loose by finding another BSE positive. Although the U.S. likes to point out that the Washington Holstein was not an indigenous case of BSE, the world other than Canada has shut their borders to imports of U.S. cattle. The U.S. lost most of their export markets in December but kept their prices strong by unfairly continuing to block our live cattle. Seems like we are the losers.

[rsomer]

The U.S. established a timeline with Japan. In hindsight, Canada should have done the same instead of being caught in a situation where the U.S. seems to be able to take all the time they want in getting around to opening our border.

[kato]

If they had one of their own, their arguments against us would lose a lot of steam.

Then maybe we could work together on this deal, instead of bickering back and forth between countries.

It's a North American market, whether they like it or not, but as long as we are the only ones who have a recorded positive, they won't change their attitude about that.

[grassfarmer]

No I don't think they will be impressed frustrated1. I was calling producers last night ahead of the BIG-C rally in Ponoka and had a most interesting talk with a Japanese beef producer living fairly close to me. He has a unique perspective on the testing issue as he was cattle farming in Japan before he emigrated to Alberta 14 years ago. He says the Japanese will not drop their demands for tested cattle from the US and the Americans have still got to find that out. I tend to agree with him and will state again that it mirrors the same stupid, pig headed arrogance that the US has tried to shove down European consumers throats for over a decade now with regard to hormone fed beef. Let's get testing and let's lead the world beef exporting community by doing so.

[whiteface]

I have an extended Japaneese family by marriage (my uncle married a lovely Japaneese woman) and am happy to have gotten to know all of them and their culture. I also feel perhaps I am qualified to say on behalf of the Japaneese culture that no, here in North America, we aren't getting it. They want the meat tested. End of story. No stepping up surveillance, no treating them like their science is stupid, no waiting until their most successful fast food chain goes under and pressures their government. Thanks rsomer for mentioning a viewpoint from Japaneese persons perspective, especially one that lived there. We're waaaaay ahead of the states for getting our meat exported (anywhere) again, let's not be arrogant, let's give the customer what they want. Today is as good as any to start!

[whiteface]

My apologies grassfarmer, I had typed rsomers name in the space I had intended for your name. Thank you rsomer for the details you provide our forum but thanks to grassfarmer for the information regarding insight to Japaneese wishes.

[BWC]

Hey not to worry about the misread if I could type or write worth a rip there would'nt have been a problem.Also did some research on quick tests from two suppliers of the USDA, BIO- RAD, and Prionics INC., and their disclaimers have them covered for a much larger rate than 1 in 10,000 false positives.
I guess the deeper I dig the higher the walls get, but I'm not throwing out the shovel yet. I am still of the opinion that the Americans have to be very careful with the science, if they get caught in any discrepecy in their testing it will immediately blow their credibility to the rest of the world. Remember that the hard line that the Japanese are taking on testing was mostly because their government tried to keep their original BSE under wraps, and it almost cost them their jobs.
Right now the Americans feel very safe because they can consume what they produce, but if they botch consumer confidence. They could be faced with the same situation that the Japanese were.

[BWC]

How about this little rumor.

Rumors are racing even more on this one (Is
there a leak at the USDA?), like suggestions the animal involved is an 8-year
old cow from Idaho that tested positive as many as three times with rapid test
kits. We don't know if any of this is true, but can report with certainty that
such ideas are now in wide circulation. Such thinking/expectations/fears could
skew cash and futures trading through the end of the week. Assuming it takes
about the same amount of time to get final results on the second inconclusive
as it did on the first (about 5 days), USDA may have nothing to say in this
regard until Sunday or Monday.

[grassfarmer]

Quite believe it RPK, with Sunday being 4th July it could be a good day to sneak out the news - almost as good as on the eve of Christmas! worrying that it comes from Idaho that's too close to Canada.

[rsomer]

Lets hope the next BSE positive whether it is this one or another is a cow about 8 years old or older. If an animal that was born after the ban on feeding ruminant protein is found positive it will be a entirely different problem than finding an older cow.

[kato]

Idaho's too close to Canada for me to feel to comfortable.

Mind you, there's no news of the CFIA being contacted yet. They were contacted within a day of the Washington cow.

I guess no news is good news.