Latest Census Data

[cakadu]

According to the latest 2001 census data released, there are 15% fewer people living on farms than there were in 1996 - some 747,000 people. Logically, there are also fewer farms.

There has also been an increase in the number of people going off the farm to earn a living, except in the category of more than $250,000 from farm income.

For every dollar the producer receives - 86 cents of that is taken up in input costs, up from 83 cents in 1996.

From a socio-economic viewpoint, where does this leave rural Canada? We are getting less and less of a voice out there.

How do we factor this in to the "bigger is better" theory that seems to have pervaded the agriculture industry. Isn't it more prudent to be at the size where it makes economic sense for you? If you can't make any money farming 2,000 acres, it is unlikely you will make money farming 4,000 acres. You will have economies of scale working for you, but eventually they have a declining return as well.

How can we make the farm family more viable and able to earn what they need to off of the land that they own? Surely get big or get out will not prevail? Wouldn't working smarter not harder be the order of the day?

[cowman]

The decline continues. And will continue.
Our various governments have in reality done little to make agriculture viable for the average person. That is why there is an exodus from the farm to the city? If you take a look at the age figures you will see we are rapidly approaching the day when corporate farms will have to take over. There just aren't very many young people entering farming?
Many of the small rural towns have pretty well become ghost towns or senior citizen centers! Nothing but old people!
The government failed to bring in and enforce legislation that would keep farms viable. If any product becomes profitable, they let in the imports. Is this good? Well supposedly it is good for the consumer but not so good for the peasants trying to compete with subsidized imports or imports from countries that have no rules!
I do believe supply management was the answer! Every other business practices it...when Ford can't sell its trucks at a profit does it make even more?
Supply management turned into sort of a gong show, when they allowed the quota system to become a commodity...that should have never happened! But consider which ag industries are vibrant and profitable...dairy,chickens, eggs! We had our chance with hogs and cattle and didn't take it...we let our greed for the big bucks overtake us? And that is why today we have this glut of cattle.

[gmj]

Cowman, government cannot help us with subsidies. I immigrated to this great country 24 yrs. ago from Germany where agriculture was starting to get subsidised regularly. The government wanted to keep lots of small farms going, but I don't think it worked. The village we left had 11 families of which 6 where fulltime farmers. Today there are still 11 households there and none of them are farming. The land is all being farmed by a large famer from 40 miles away who stuck his neck out and grew to a large size (1000 ac). I don't know whether he is making a lot of money. My relatives who are still farming there say there is no money in it and the next generation doesn't want to take over either. My dad left because he saw it coming in the late 70's and I'm glad he did. I have no idea how it will go on but there will always be somebody there to farm the land. All the best.

[cowman]

Well I wasn't saying anything about subsidies. But the idea of limiting the food supply to the demand side always seemed to me like a good idea?
Why grow a product, at a loss, that nobody wants? Wouldn't it make sense to just grow enough to fill the demand?
In Canada we are awash with food! Too much beef, pork, wheat to feed the population, so we have to export. Unfortunately a whole lot of other countries are doing the same thing(and a lot cheaper than us)!
We have an affluent population that can well afford to pay a profit to their farmers? They are doing it right now for chickens, eggs and dairy products? No imports just the domestic production, right? Why not cattle, hogs and wheat?
Do we really need all this production?

[cakadu]

Trouble is cowman, from a consumer perspective, they don't realize that they are paying a premium for those supply managed commodities. If you read some of studies out there about supply management, it is the consumer that is "subsidizing" those producers. If supply management were taken away tomorrow in dairy, for example, the dairy farmers would see a 60% decline in their incomes because they would have to deal with the world price of milk, which New Zealand sets.

Have you ever looked at the "pre-fab" foods that are out there - very few of them come from Canada because we are at a disadvantage when it comes to manufacturing them. We have to pay far more for the inputs of dairy products, eggs and chicken than our competitors do - and they KNOW it.

Yes, in a manner of speaking supply management is a good thing for the producers, but it comes at a price. How long Canada will continue to defend that is anyone's guess.

[dalek]

Cakadu, it's a pretty wild assumption to think that if supply management ends dairy farmers will have to match New Zealand. The world dairy export market is a tiny part of the milk produced in the world, ask dairy producers in the US if they have to match New Zealand prices. They're making significantly more than Canadian farmers now.

[cakadu]

Actually Dalek, it isn't a wild assumption. It would be what the majority of non supply managed industries face now, which is having to deal with the world price i.e. grains.

The figures that I have seen show that New Zealand is the least cost producer of milk and it is the least cost producer that one competes with in the open market. That is why when it comes to livestock production in this country, we will never be the least cost producer.

[cowman]

Why would we want to compete with the lowest price? So the consumer could get milk for less? I mean Canadians pay something like a whopping 9% of their income on food right now! I guess they need to get it down to 8%? Afterall the price of the SUV and RV probably cost more this year and we need to know what are the important things in life, right?
That kind of thinking is what has brought our agriculture to its knees. Take a look around...lots of young people in agriculture?
Perhaps we all should be competing with the lowest cost producer...in everything! Afterall that is globalism, right? Globalism means one thing for just about everyone...slavery...the lowest common denominator? Our politicians applaud globalism, after all they believe they will be the masters...little knowing that the"real powers"(corporations) have a little set of chains waiting for them too!
Here's a novel idea for those pre-fab type foods...put a tariff on the amount of dairy, chicken, eggs in them? Not trade friendly? Hey the US does it all the time on just about anything they want! Eventually they might have to remove the duty but by then the damage is done and the foreign company trying to do business is broke and out of business...and if they haven't got the message...put another duty on!

[cakadu]

Cowman, I don't know all of the details, but they have extremely high tariffs on dairy products that come in. The only thing that got left out of the agreement, that they wish they would have caught is butteroil. If you look at most of today's ice cream it is made with butter oil, with the exception of your higher end ice creams like Ben & Jerry's and such.

I in no way advocate for becoming the lowest cost producer because that is a no win situation particularly for the producer. We do end up having to compete with them, however, and that puts us at a bit of a disadvantage given our climactic conditions here. I think that producers need to know their costs of production and find ways to keep them low as it is in their best interests to do so.

Part of the problem cowman is that we continue to produce those things that do not bring us as producers much value. We need to start operating like businesses and look to those things that will actually make us money. Value chains are one avenue to do it. Changing from a production mindset to one of a market or consumer driven mindset is another. We have to grow what we can sell, not sell what we grow.

On a positive note, we are seeing some evidence that producers are headed in this direction and that is a terrific thing. This whole BSE mess has awakened a sleeping giant and there is only one way to go now.

At the end of the day, the continued and prolonged decline in producers is a concern. We are getting to be less and less of a voice out there and there are less people that represent us.

How would you go about having people pay more for food? That is a huge mindset shift that has to occur. What will cause Canadians to reach for Canadian made products before others?

[cowman]

Linda: I just had an AHA moment! Perhaps why a lot of people are leaving agriculture is that they just don't want to be butchers, bakers, marketers, accountants and lawyers! They just want to be dumb old farmers and grow their crops and livestock and not do all that other stuff?
They want their governments to ensure they have fair and reasonable markets, so they can just do their little production thing? I guess this is way to much to ask from any government?
The sad thing is you just can't be a darned peasant anymore! Grow your product(that everybody needs and wants) and expect a fair and decent price? Instead you have to get out there and be a processor, a wholesaler, a retailer and a salesman?
Another AHA moment! That is why I am quitting! Because I am a dumb peasant and not a processor /salesman...well the sooner people like me leave the better? I think that must be how the government sees it too?

[cakadu]

Cowman, you don't have to be all of those things - you can still do what you do best. What is different is that you find others you can work with that have the skills that you don't. Some are better at sales and should leave the growing to others and there is nothing wrong with that. The crux of the matter is that we have to get past the notion of doing it all and being independent. Sad fact is that we cannot do it all any longer.

There are glimmers of hope now where none existing 14 months ago. It is so heartening to see people coming together for the sake of a cause to try and generate solutions.

We need to become interdependent and realize that in numbers there is strength.

[dalek]

Cakadu, get this straight... the so-called "world market" for milk consists of New Zealand, and anyone else who happens to be over-producing in the short run and has milk to dump. New Zealand is the only country in the world who wants to compete internationally in any large way. There isn't a world market for milk because milk can't easily be shipped to other countries like grain or even meat. Notice that even with record prices in the US, others in the world aren't in a hurry to try shipping milk to the US because shipping costs eat up all the margins.

[cakadu]

Dalek, if you look at what I said it was world price, which is different from a world market. Of course you couldn't have a world market in something as perishable as fluid milk. We have oversupply in this country even with supply management in place. As you well know, you can't be over or under quota as there are penalties to be paid.

The USDA was one source of the information I have seen over the years and I was at a meeting in Washington D.C. where the USDA gave figures of milk production/profit on the countries that have been discussed.

Suffice it to say that it is unlikely that those on the inside of the system and those one the outside of the system, will ever see it in the same light.

[cowman]

The basic idea of matching supply and demand is a good one, however it is done, at least for the primary producer! Maybe not so good for the international mega corporation?
And we can vertically integrate all we want but if we have a glut on the market we will never get a profitable price?
Right now, in the cattle business, we are experiencing an over supply problem? Too many darned cows for Canadians to eat? If we'd bit the bullet and shot about one third of them last year we'd probably have our supply side of the equation just about right?
Trade problems, health problems...who is to blame? Well no one really...thats just how it is. However I will note our "elite" government decided it was okay to feed dead cows to live ones?
The government decided a mass cull wasn't in the picture! Too politically incorrect...we wouldn't want all the urbanites witnessing cows being shot afterall? Of course everyday thousands and thousands are shot, but it is done behind closed doors, so people don't have to face reality when they eat that Big Mac!
Also the government probably couldn't afford it, and so the farmer gets stuck with the bill when he shoots those 5 cent cows this fall! What else is new?
Eventually, one way or the other, a lot of cows have to go! This thing doesn't look like it will turn around anytime soon and the story is a lot of these cattle hitting the markets right now are the banks! Repossessed cattle! Farms soon to follow? The joys of over producing?