A little more rain!

[cowman]

Rained pretty hard here all night and is still coming down pretty steady. Never checked the gauge but when I look out and see a creek running through the yard it usually is getting up in that 2 inch range!
This sure was a funny summer?...what summer?
I am beginning to think there might be a lot of crops that won't get harvested? I suppose the bright spot there is they aren't worth a hell of a lot anyway!
I suppose with crop insurance it doesn't really matter? You'll still get a check? Too bad they never had calf insurance during the last two years?

[redhen]

and here I thought that CAIS was supposed to fill that void !!!!!

I flew into Nisku on Thursday afternoon and from the air it is evident that the majority of the crops from Red Deer north to Edmonton aren't harvested. Combines were running west of Leduc yesterday afternoon but it is supposed to rain today.

[cowman]

Emerald: It was a tough harvest last year and it looks like another tough one this year! I'm not sure how many farmers might be forced to pack it in if they don't get this crop off?...or maybe even want to continue with the higher costs that will be around next spring? I would suggest the grain farmer might be approaching a point of crisis?
Don't know about CAIS? We decided not to participate in the end as I suspect there wasn't any real money in it as far as we were concerned? Even in the BSE years we couldn't generate a loss,...despite my rantings about losses!
As far as I could see the real recipients of CAIS are the big feeders and maybe the hog farmers? The same guys who benifitted from FDIP?
It is sort of funny that if you run a tight ship and don't rely on a lot of debt you aren't eligible for government welfare but if you are a big operator and speculator, you do? Guess the government wants to reward the losers rather than the winners...well I guess that is fairly typical?
I also find it amusing when some grain farmers go on about how the CWB is keeping feed grain prices low for the western Canadian hog and beef farmer, while in the meantime they are fastened hard on the government tit! They seem to ignore the fact that the feed market is still their best, and perhaps only, market? Actually no one else in the world wants their grain!

[FarmRanger]

Be careful comparing cattle to grain Cowman, I know some Cow/calf guys who got some pretty big Caisp cheques too. Just be glad you don't have countries producing extra cattle to dump on the world market below the price their farmers get paid.

[cropduster]

If you`re wanting a reaction to you`re last parargraph cowman.....here goes...We both know the CWB reduces the western barley growers options to market his feed grain.Your last statement about no one wanting the feed grain simply isn`t true.It`s the market arbritrage/freedom that the growers need.Now the corn coming in is another story too.How long do you think it would be before there would be another trade dispute with the US if you and I went to the US and trumpeted how the CWB keeps the carryout??I`m thinking this action is brewing already,if not tried......Sorry off topic of rain!!Plane is going to be drained today...supposed to be -5 to -8 here tonite.That will crack a few closed valves!!Have you got your stuff winterized??

[cowman]

Yea, I know I shouldn't be ripping the grainfarmer...Lord knows that is one ugly business! And hey the cattle business definitely isn't very "pure" anymore?
I think, cropduster, I have always said there has to be some sort of balance in these darned grain and cattle prices...and without a doubt year in and year out the grain guys have got screwed!
I think you also know I am not a big fan of the CWB? I quit growing grain about 1990 but still have a couple of hundred acres on a crop share deal with my cousin. I quit because quite frankly I could see the writing on the wall? My equipment needed some upgrading and it was get big or get out...so out I went! My old man was really the one who liked grain! However having said that, I am still interested in grain and I try to keep up with it and actually one of my leasure time activities is "scouting" grain fields!
I have nothing but respect for the western Canadian grainfarmer.

[cowman]

Oh and by the way cropduster, the corn thing is a scandal and somebody should be taken out behind the barn and shot over it!
If our darned government won't stand up to keep subsidized corn out(no matter how green the program is) then I would suggest there needs to be a few government boys go down the road?
What is really disgusting, in my opinion, is the hog guys saying they want that cheap subsidized American corn!...like $1.75 barley doesn't give them a profit?
You know somewhere in this world you have to step back and say "Hey, this just isn't fair!" Instead of thinking "Wow I can screw my neighbors...and make a few more shekels on their backs"!
We are becoming too much like the yanks in that regard, in my humble opinion?

[cowman]

the pork commodity organization blows their horn continuously about how much they add to the ecomony of the province.

[cowman]

Well emerald I think it was the Ontario pork producers who were challenging the corn deal, not the Alberta pork producers?
Without a doubt the pork business does add to the Alberta economy? It is amazing how that industry has shrunk(in terms of hog producers) in the last ten years! My hog farmer neighbor tells me the industry is still contracting to the point where hog farmers are becoming a rare commodity!
I know in my area they are pretty well all gone. Now as much as I might not like the smell the fact was these hog farms were fairly prosperous...more so than cattle or grain?...Now they are pretty well all gone.
I do believe what we have seen in the hog business is coming our way? The small cow/calf operation is going to feel the pressure? Very few family hog farms went broke...they just got to the point where the pay wasn't worth the work involved? I would suggest that is where we are going with cow/calf today?
Consider in 1992 we were getting $1.25/lb. for a 650 lb. steer...and today $1.25/lb for that same steer! However the cost to raise that steer has gone way up no matter how you do it? Even all these grazing/grassfed schemes come with a cost? Land isn't free.
And then how about living costs? You have to eat, you have to heat your home, you have to drive something, you have to have electricity? Everything costs more...and here you are getting the same price you were 13 years ago!
How much profit is in a cow? Cam Ostercamp puts it at $50...pre BSE! Now if you work for free and expect no return to your land or your investment then who knows what it is? But in reality that is false economics and you are deluding yourself? I expect Ostercamps figures are more realistic?
At $50/cow you would need 1,000 cows to have an income quite a bit lower than a school teacher or a nurse! At 500 cows you would be right around the wage of a store clerk! At 300 cows you get less than a MacDonalds hamburger flipper!
I expect we will see an increase in large cow herds and a decrease in the small guy and I expect those big herds will be run out in the sticks where the land is relatively cheap because no one else wants it? I don't think they will get rich but will be on a treadmill of expanding to keep the same standard of living?
Pretty pessimistic thinking...or realistic thinking? Time will tell.