Consider this?

[cakadu]

Farmers_son, we might not be seeing depopulation as such but make no mistake about it, producers cannot afford land along the QEII corridor, at least not to farm anyway.

We are fighting a different battle though, seeing good farm land being paved over to accommodate the sprawl from cities and larger towns. Trouble is that these municipalities have the right to grow and where to do they go but onto farm land.

At one time producers made up less than 3% of the population and I daresay that number is moving rather quickly to less than 2%. We'll be doing another census this year so that should help tell the tale somewhat.

Agricultural development and rural development will generally be negatively correlated, so how does one fix that? How do you get urban folks interested in preserving farmland?

I agree wholeheartedly with emrald, the oil patch is no easy life and it certainly takes its toll on families. The oil patch is red hot right now, but it wasn't all that long ago that it was barely moving i.e. when it was $11/bbl.

For those of us that saw the oil bust of the 80's, one has to wonder exactly how long it will go on and how many people are going to be caught once again. It is so easy to get credit these days and many people are buying on a whim, but heaven help them if interest rates creep up. Remember when mortgages were 18%?

[cakadu]

In my community Hummers, Escalades, Navigators are a common sight everywhere, money is flowing like water, but some of us remember all too well the high interest and the bust of the 80's !!!
The size of the new homes being built is mind boggling, considering the cost of heating and taxes etc. There is such a need for accommodation for people working in the area that one Realtor has been buying up old houses and having them renovated into rooms to rent out at $90.00 a night !!!
There is certainly an opportunity with the boom in the oil patch for spin off income for folks but how long it will last is any body's guess, although the forecast for 2006 sounds positive.

[cowman]

I sicerely doubt this boom is going away anytime soon. Things are a little different than the early eighties? For one thing we can't screwed by eastern Canada? Everyday we should get down on our knees and thank Brian Mulrooney for the free trade deal!
In addition new rules and regulations on the environment in the USA(those evil non Kyoto boys) have created a huge market for our methane gas that won't go away? Add the increased production of the tarsands and new technology that makes them very competitive? And on top of that it doesn't look like the middle east will ever be without turmoil in our lifetime?
Iran recently defied the world and started again on there quest for the bomb? Now while Europe and North America wring their hands and make vague idle threats...know this: Israel will never let that happen! Look for a big war...probably as early as this spring! Hmmm I wonder what that might do for a barrel of Alberta crude?

[farmers_son]

No economy based on two primary resource industries can be considered strong with a massive discrepancy between one primary resource sector and the other. At some point farmers will wake up and smell the coffee.

They will begin to understand the reason they have to leave their farms and work away from home for weeks is because the government is supporting the oil industry through cheap royalties and accelerated exports while leaving agriculture to wither on the vine. At some point farmers will begin to wonder why grain farmers in this country struggle to compete with U.S. farmers who receive massive subsidies through the U.S. farm bill while governments at home say they cannot afford to offer similar support for our farmers. At some point farmers working at their oil patch job are going to realize if they received the same level of support that a U.S. farmer did they would not have to work off farm. At some point Canadian farmers are going to figure out that if Alberta was not subsidizing oil and gas exports through cheap royalties that they could work full time on their farm and drive a decent truck just like the oil patch guys.

At some point farmers are going to realize that the farm crisis they are experiencing is a direct result of government policies that refuse to support Canadian farmers at a level that would be comparable to the U.S. We sell our oil and gas to the U.S. at U.S. prices but we expect our agriculture to get by on Canada prices.

[Ron]

I am working in Ontario for a couple days and I was asked today why the west (Alberta) sells its energy to the US instead of supplying the east with cheaper energy. I couldnt find the words to answer. get freaking real. The conversation then changed to the CWB and I couldnt do any better.
They are nice enough people but what a different viewpoint.
They are torn because the liberals seem corrupt but they still love big government. (job creation)

[dalek]

Farmers son, just watch the dollar rise. Soon enough we'll be getting paid for our commodities in US prices, but our Canadian suppliers will still be charging us prices based on a 75 cent dollar.

[dalek]

What part of Ontario are you working in? Can't be around here, there are more Green Party signs on lawns than Liberal, and the Conservatives have 5X all parties combined. Some of the most staunch Liberals I know are voting Green in the advance polls because they can't stomach contributing to a Conservative or NDP win but won't vote Liberal.

[Ron]

I am in Sarnia for a couple more days, the guys I am working here are union refinery workers, quite urban oriented. (I think the union end may contribute to a different viewpoint). Just had supper with our salesman and he mentioned how the east helped us out for years so why shouldnt we share the wealth (that was about Ralphs $400 bonus). I asked when they helped us out and he thought about 20 years ago, he had no idea what the NEP was. He is about 30 years old, is a great guy but the regional viewpoint is astounding. No idea of why we feel alienated in canada. Where are you Dalek?

[dalek]

Almost exactly halfway between Ottawa and Toronto. Try to get out of Sarnia into some of the rural areas of Lambton county, I think you'll find the people more to your liking.

[Ron]

I like the people here, they are very friendly but I am sure not going to discuss politics, just drinking beer and hockey. I heard some comments on a town hall meeting on the radio on sat night, it sounds familiar (I am losing my ass and the liberals dont care. For years they said there was no money for agriculture, now there is a budget surplus and surprize, still no money for agriculture). Farmers have the same input cost squeeze nation wide (at least something unites us).
I talked to one fellow today that farms 400 acres of black muck? He said he lost 30,000 last year. Any auction sales out east? Last time I checked Ritchie brothers had 68 sales booked for spring (before christmas).
I am glad my 600 acres lets me work off farm because if I was big enough to be full time I couldnt make it.

[cropduster]

I agree with what you say about our regionalized eastern neighbors Ron.They are basically `good` people with a different view.If more of them could be exposed to our ways they would think similarly.Did you see the TV program about the Liberal girl brought west by the tv reporter?It seemed she lost her "center of the universe" opinion very quickly.Please don`t be afraid to offer that to your eastern coworkers.Hopefully it will be worth the risk of alienation!!We all need to do more of it.I`d like to travel more to Quebec...since I`m starting to believe they hate Ottawa more than we do and are actually willing to DO something about it.It`s just that I don`t agree with their methods,but would rather start there the with those that LOVE big gov`t.

[cakadu]

One of the other things that really hurts agricultural expansion is the lack of R & D tax credits that are available to those in the energy sector. If agriculture had some of the same support that the oil patch got, we might be talking about something.

It might not go away cowman, but we don't control the "tap" so to speak and the price of oil can go down just as fast as it came up. Based on what emrald has said I don't think it would take as much of a disaster as was witnessed in the early 80's to have people end up hurting real bad. We're not much different in terms of the Hummers, Navigators and fancy homes going up. Much of it is bought on credit and if interest rates go up, people will be in trouble. It was less than 5 years ago that oil was on $11. I don't think we should get too complacent about the longevity of this latest boom. Remember, what goes up must come down at some point.

[cowman]

Oil could go down but I wouldn't hold my breath. The only thing right now that might be a problem is if Ottawa tried to make a grab for the oil, such as a new NEP? Probably called "Kyoto"!
The days when we had to subsidize the east with cheap oil are hopefully gone forever?
I doubt the people out here would stand for it ever again?
farmers son: I hate to tell you this but the policies that have discouraged agriculture have come from the federal government? Trade is a federal responsibility? In fact the Alberta government has done more for agriculture than any other provincial government, except Quebec?
It might be helpful if we have a federal government that is more in tune with the American government? It might be helpful to have a federal government who views the west as someting more than a bunch of hick rednecks that provide a cash cow?
On Jan. 23 you get a chance to send a message to Ottawa? Don't waste the opportunity!

[dalek]

Ron there are a few auctions but mostly in this area the people who are quitting don't have much left that's worth selling anyway, they're just dumping the cows through the sales barn, hanging onto a tractor for piddling around the yard, putting the worn out equipment in the fenceline and putting anything good in a dealers yard on consignment. Last salebarn sale I was at (2 weeks ago) the best bred cows were going for about $650 (Charolais X, due late Feb-early March) with good bred Herefords going for $250-300. One of our Holstein dealers just brought us 6 fresh cows to milk until he sells them, he hasn't been able to move them for a while and the last guy that was keeping them kicked them out.
Anybody that only lost $30,000 on 400 acres this year was doing VERY well. Most in this area lost $150/acre or more, and we have some of the lowest rents in the province.

[farmers_son]

Cowman: Regarding subsidizing the east with cheap oil and never doing it again. That is right, we can never do it again because NAFTA would not let us.

Whether we kiss up to the Americans or not it might be helpful if we had a government that would put in place the equivalent of the U.S. farm bill. Not to say that I support that kind of program but the U.S. farm bill is not going to go away and we simply cannot stay in business here in Canada trying to produce commodities that are essentially priced in the U.S., with inputs like fertilizer and diesel and machinery priced in the U.S. and pay for it with a much lower made in Canada level of farm support.

And while Canadian farmers have received farm support from our government in the last few years it was either drought support or BSE support. The U.S. producer is guaranteed at least $2.15 for every bushel of barley he can grow. On top of that he receives a $0.28 per bushel direct payment on his historical yield. Total of $2.43 minimum he can receive for his barley. If the price of barley goes up the producer gets it. There is no cost to the producer to participate in the U.S. farm bill. On top of that the producer is yield protected to 75% of the county’s normal yield if there is a crop failure.


And what about NAFTA? One of the key features of NAFTA was that Canada could not have a made in Canada energy policy. The price of our energy had to be priced in Canada at the U.S. price. Prior to NAFTA we used to buy fertilizer at made in Canada prices with a few tricks thrown in to make it cheaper for Canadian farmers. Since NAFTA our fertilizer is priced basis the U.S. Gulf plus freight to Saskatchewan. Alberta fertilizer prices are typically higher than in Saskatchewan.

The reason we see as many Canadian farmers having to work off farm is not because we do not work as hard or are as good managers as the Americans. It is a direct result of Canadian farm support which does not come even close to making us competitive with the Americans. We were fed a line, and Canadian farmers fell for it, that Canada could not afford to support our farmers. Well now Canada is the strongest economy in the G8, that excuse does not fly any more if it did then.

Bottom line, if our farmers do not stand up and demand a fair shake then there will not be many farmers left. The “fewer farmers” policy is working.