Bio-deisel/ethanol?

[cowman]

In yesterdays National Post there was an interview with a top mutual investment broker who is predicting oil will fall somewhere between $30-$40 a barrel within the year! He says there is no way it is going to continue to rise and we will never see $100/barrel like the experts were predicting!
Which in reality makes sense? When the price went up people start to conserve and exploration took off? And anyone who knows the business knows the whole scarcity thing is basically a shell game?
More oil sands come on stream and new technology is allowing a better recovery rate in conventional wells?
Now I wonder if ethanol and bio deisel can compete with $30-$40 oil? Or does it need to be propped up with government subsidies?

[northfarmer]

I also think we will see a correction in energy values, we have already seen a major correction in nat gas to 6.50 from a high of 15.50. Oil should follow, not sure of the degree. Also there are predictions we could have a 82-84 cent dollar by year end, this is driven by energy value predictions.

Alternative fuels can and will survive with US intention on energy security and environment. Govt polivy and intervention will be needed both in the US and Canada, and EU for that matter, for these industries to continue to produce and grow. Canada is the least inclined it seems to support these industries, and likley has the greatest pressure from the energy sector to maintain the status quo.

As energy values correct so will ag commodities, making them more dear for fuel production.

Anyway, that is my humble opinion(MHO).

[Horse]

This is like the chicken and the egg debate , the difference is sooner or later we will know who is right on the energy debate.
It was said it took us 100yr to use the first trillion barels oil but will only take 30 yr to use the next trillion
Question is how many more trillion is left as for the tar sands how much are we willing to give up to get the oil out ,the athabasca river is pretty well used up and the flow is less and unless there is a dramatic change in precipitation will in all propility continue to decrease, how much do we take the athabasca delta is under stress now but what does that matter as almost no one sees it anyway.

[cowman]

Don't worry Horse, they'll still be burning gasoline in cars long after you and me are in the ground! Why worry about something that is going to "maybe" happen?
Don't know about the Athabasca River...as you say who sees it...and was it being used for something important? Maybe we need to worry more about the South Saskatchewan river, if we care, because it is being used for something! Growing those valuable irrigation crops and keeping those cities growing!

[Horse]

I wonder and hope I will be here for a while yet just to see if I wory or you have tunnel vision. As for the athabasca delta it does have a purpose and it may be some things you just cant put a price on, its something like trees get rid of the dam things so I can pull biger machinery and grow more 1.60 bly but with trees gone also goes the runoff and weather paterns and wildlife and probably things we wont notice for yr to come.
As for building more citys and more spral what for we are a dying race we cant take time out fo our getting rich to breed and increase in our pop but by god we will die rich, not that I have anything against money its just the means some will go to just to say they have more than you do.

[cakadu]

The demand for oil and gas from countries like China and India is on the rise - and quickly - especially in China. Horse isn't so far wrong when he talks about how quickly we will go through some of this. Sure, it may last for many a year after all of us are gone, but the truth of the matter is that it will run out someday.

What we have no idea about is the actual costs of bringing all of that oil/bitumen/methane and natural gas out of the ground.

When the water is gone - it's gone. Sure we can go to desalinization but that may not be cost effective in the long run. The South Saskatchewan is on the road to becoming overallocated, as is the Red Deer.

Sure we had all that rain last year, but that by no means alleviated the water problems we have. Look at how dry it was this winter. Pretty big cracks in the ground in some parts.

[cowman]

Despite what you might think that I am some kind of evil environment hater, I too am concerned about what happens with the water, air, soil here! Hey theres only one world and we all live here right?
And yea I get concerned when I go up to Jasper and see how far back the glaciers have moved at the Columbia ice fields. And I think injecting water downs wells is about the dumbest thing ever!
I do believe in conserving water and keeping the crap out of the air as much as possible!
I live here, my children and their children live here...and hopefully they can for a long time.
I did the environmental farm plan and it showed we were pretty good.
Believe it or not most oil and gas companies aren't out to destroy the world? I really doubt you'll find anyone working for them who is in favor of pollution or trashing the environment! They do what they can, believe it or not! A lot of the old practices are gone or are going? If you want to make your fortune, come up with a practical method to avoid the necessity of flaring...the oil industry will pay you literally hundreds of millions!
We all need to do our little part? The 1000 lb. challenge is something we should all be shooting for. Just my opinion.

[cakadu]

You've touched on some of the issues cowman but there are so many more. Wildlife that has to contend with traditional grazing routes being disturbed, cutlines everywhere, wildlife habitat being severely disturbed. We keep hearing more about animal attacks, is it any wonder when they are getting squeezed into a smaller and smaller area?

It isn't just oil and gas cowman, it is the "weekend warrior" who goes out on his quad and does damage in sensitive areas because it is his right to get away from it all. Garbage strewn everywhere.

Yes the oil patch is trying to clean up it's act, but we have absolutely no idea of the damage done in the past when the practices weren't so good.

I am not for a moment advocating for all of this to stop. What I do want to see is some thought and foresight going into some of the decisions being made.

I read today where the power companies are pushing to have the whole process speeded up so that they can get at building the power lines quicker. If we don't take some of the necessary steps, then how can we do the best job possible?

[cowman]

I don't know enough about the power company deal to make much of a comment other than to say it sure doesn't smell right! Something is rotten in Denmark...kind of thing.
I was at a political deal last night and got talking with a guy who worked fairly high up for an oil company. He was telling me about the CO2 "flood" in the Weyburn field and it was sure interesting stuff! This gas field was established in 1979 and was basically finished in 1992. Last year they "flooded" or pumped massive amounts of CO2 into the field and it is turning out to be a gold mine! This field is now expected to produce until 2025 with an increased volume above initial 1979 production! Recovery is expected to go from 12% to 64%! This same company is planning another "CO2 flood" in a field around Clive this summer...if they can get enough CO2!
This is the kind of new technology we really need to pursue? This makes so much sense it is ridiculous?

[cowman]

Oh and by the way, this guy was working for a Coalbed company and they are actively pursuing this production method for coalbed methane. They believe it will really enhance their recovery rates.