Belinda Stronach

[kato]

Around here the buyers are getting really picky. Discounts for off-types are pretty big. If the quality is there, they say the price is OK, but you've got to be careful what you take to sell. I guess we'll find out on Tuesday. We've got a few consigned to a presort.

We're buying calves to background, but they're pretty small. They were coming in pretty slow at first, but last week was busy, so we figured they must be off a bit. This week not one calf has showed up, so I'm not sure what that means. Either there aren't any at the sales, or someone is out there with some money!

[cowman]

This whole affair is a tempest in a teapot! Come on he makes one little comment in rebuttal to a stupid question and all the useless oppostion members pretend he has ruined the country or something!...I guess it must be pretty slow these days in Parliment or something?
The fact is this Stronach is pretty much a dog! She's sleeping around with a married man and if you believe Domi's wife she's ruining their marriage. Is this the kind of person we want as a leader of our country? You wonder how come our morals have gone to hell in a handbasket in this country? This "creature" was actually in the running to be the Prime minister of this country?
This "creature" is the darling of the womens vote? A good role model for young Canadian girls?
Well you can dress the trash up if you have enough dollars but the fact is trash is trash and all the money in the world can't change that fact!

[cowman]

I wonder how low calf prices will affect some producers decisions to stay in this business? Just offhand I can't remember how low calves went in 2003 but it looks like we could be there in the next few weeks?
In 2002, when grain prices rose dramatically and calf prices fell, the Americans stepped in and bought a lot of calves? Don't know if that will happen now as the Canadian dollar is very high and corn is high?
Where does this end up? Cheap calves should decrease the supply eventually? Less feeders available will reduce the need for grain? This grain price is being driven(supposedly) by crop reductions in other parts of the world?
What happens next year if there is ample grain around the world, but we don't have as large a calf crop? Will we see record calf prices?
The Canadian cow/calf producer has taken a beating for the last three years(maybe four)...how much longer will he be able to survive? Or want to?
I would suggest calves at $1.06 really is getting borderline to any kind of profit? How many industries in the real world can afford to take prices we were getting in the 1980's?

[coppertop]

cowman, I would certainly argue that Belinda is not the 'darling of the women's vote'. Most women that take the time to vote like to see something with a few brain cells in a decision making role.

Several years ago, I attended a Federation of Canadian Municipalities convention and sat in on a session that was geared to encourage more women to run for public office. It was such drivel that I left half way through the session, the focus was on getting women to run, and showing them how to dress, but not one word was uttered about finding candidates, both men and women with integrity and brains !!!!

Belinda is but one of many who are involved in public life don't really care about propriety. But, having said that, its the electorate that chooses this sort of person !

[cowman]

I agree with you about the electorate deciding who gets in. Doesn't say much for the people who voted for her does it? I wonder how she would fare in Hanna, Alberta?
I'm not saying Stronach is anymore of a sleaze than a lot of MPs! Peter McKay isn't the most honorable person around either!
It must be frustrating for people of integrity, who run for public office, get painted with the same brush as these less than honorable people?
Call me naive or something, but I still like to believe there are people in public life who run because they think they are doing their duty and not just out to rip off the system or play the big wheel? Fewer all the time I will admit.

[kpb]

cowman, I wish farmers son was around so we could debate the existence of a cattle cycle again. I still think that we are just at the start of the downward trend of the cycle. Last spring I said that I thought that calf prices would be lower this fall and would continue to get lower over the next three to four years.

I think you will see steer prices at .80 to .85 before this cycle is over (as we saw in the mid-90's) and I think prices next fall will be lower than those available now. I think the cattle cycle is alive and kicking and those who ignore it will get kicked.

kpb

[smcgrath76]

My personal belief is that the cattle cycle is alive and well (although slightly messed up by BSE).
Combine the cycle with the high $ and it does not look so good. Generally speaking it takes longer for input costs to drop as the dollar rises, versus the speed with which calf prices decline.
I also believe that over the long haul, our low dollar killed us in terms of being leading edge and competitive with our facilities, etc.
Our low $ relative to the US, led to high prices, which compensated for the declining infrastructure amongst our processing industry. Now that the dollar is higher, we really need leading edge efficiency in processing.
The discussion on who owns the processing is another topic altogether.

[grassfarmer]

Cowman, you say "I would suggest calves at $1.06 really is getting borderline to any kind of profit?" - really? and do you know my production costs? - do you know your own for that matter?
Personally I'm quite happy selling my off sort heifers at over $600 straight off their mothers. Their mothers cost $100 of purchased feed to overwinter last year and that was by far my biggest cost. That said these would be my lowest margin cattle, the main group that get sold after preconditioning and backgrounding will be my next lowest margin leaving my grassfed steers direct marketed as my highest margin cattle by a long way.
They are averaging $1390 a head after paying processing fees and beef delivery charges. Sold a year after weaning they work back to $1000 per calf at weaning even if you allow a $ a day feed cost for their second year.

There are so many opportunities in this country if people would just see them. You say "How many industries in the real world can afford to take prices we were getting in the 1980's?" - I would say how many of the coffee shop pontificators are bitching but haven't reviewed their production or marketing policies since the 1980s?

[cswilson]

GrassFarmer u crazy old coot don't you know were all gong to hell in a hand basket-I'm glad I can't charge rope at the Co-op or I might just take the plunge lol. Cows do great on grass and water not so well on whine and ponder. We made a bit of money on our fat cattle this summer and I suppose we'll make a bit on the next set.

[Cattleman]

kpb and smcgrath, I am on the other side of the cattle cycle arguement. For argument sake, do you believe the North American cattle industry operates on the same cycle? My understand from teh cattle cycle theorists is does? Then if so, isn't the American herd in rebuilding phase? Or is it done already? Also, it sounds like Canada is in the liquidation phase??
Maybe I have some of this wrong, but it appears to me that once something happens in the industry that resembles part of the cycle, we jump to say the cylce is working, such as a shift in calf prices.
In the theory of the cattle cycle production drives prices, and we react to these prices in our production decisions, but right now, grain is driving cattle prices, and this along with drought is driving production decisions. None of which relate to the cattle cycle theory.
To me it seems that trade uncertainty, weather uncertainty, price uncertainty, and demographics of agricultural producers is driving production decisions.
I would like to hear your thoughts, I think there are a couple holes to punch through! Thanks.