Behind the Green Door

[Incognito]

So I can try to understand this:

Neither side has concrete proof.

Therefore the single desk system should be maintained for the good of whom?

You and your friends?

Without concrete proof, what is different in this approach to AdamSmith's?

To make a statement like: "I really don't think the risk reward is worth it." - is what i do not get.

With risk on one side of a blank piece of paper and reward on the other - and the paper blank - you are drawing conclusions based on nothing.
______________________________________
A proof is a proof. What kind of a proof? It's a proof. A proof is a proof. And when you have a good proof, it's because it's proven.
Jean Chretien - March 01, 1995
_______________________________________

[AdamSmith]

Agstar77, Here's my proof, now let's see yours!

Or is this just opinion?

To me it's proof that Winter Wheat and Red Spring Wheat are equivalent value and the open market reflects that. It's also proof I'm losing $1 to 1.25 per bushel on winter wheat with the single desk system.

What exactly is the risk here? Paying to much income tax?

JO GR110
Portland, OR Mon Nov 6 2006 USDA Market News

Portland Daily Grain Report
Bids as of 11:30 a.m.; Subject to change

Bids for grains delivered to Portland, Oregon. During November by
rail or barge, in dollars per bushel, except oats, corn and barley,
in dollars per cwt. Bids for 11.5 percent protein hard red winter
wheat and 14 percent protein dark northern spring wheat were split for
first and last half November delivery. Bids for soft white wheat are
for delivery periods as specified. All other bids are for full
November delivery.

December wheat futures closed higher by four to 6-3/4 cents per
bushel compared to Friday’s closes.

Bids for US 1 Soft White Wheat for November Portland delivery were
mixed, from three cents per bushel lower to one cent higher compared to
Friday’s noon bids.

Bids for 11.5 percent protein US 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat for
November Portland delivery were one to mostly four cents per bushel
higher than Friday’s noon bids in following the higher Kansas City
December wheat futures.

Bids for 14 percent protein us 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat for
November Portland delivery trended mixed, from seven cents lower to
seven cents higher compared to Friday’s noon bids.

Bids for US 2 barley were not well tested. Most exporters were not
issuing bids for November delivery.

Bids for US 2 Yellow Corn were not well tested.

US 1 Soft White Wheat - Any protein - Rail/Barge delivered
Nov mostly $ 4.99 , ranging $4.92 -5.00 dn 3-up 1
FH Dec $4.98 -5.03 unch
LH Dec $4.99 -5.06 unch-up 1
FH Jan $5.02 -5.08 unch
LH Jan $5.03 -5.10 unch-up 1
FH Feb $5.06 -5.11 up 1-unch
LH Feb $5.06 -5.12 unch
FH Mar $5.08 -5.13 up 1-dn 1
LH Mar $5.08 -5.14 unch-dn 1

US 1 White Club Wheat - Rail/Barge delivered
Nov mostly $ 5.14 , ranging $4.95 -5.17 unch

US 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat - (Exporter bids-falling numbers of 300 or
better)
Ordinary protein mostly $ 5.67 , ranging $5.52 -5.68 up 1-up 5
10 pct protein mostly $ 5.67 , ranging $5.52 -5.68 up 1-up 5
11 pct protein $5.62 -5.77 up 1-up 4
11.5 pct protein
FH Nov mostly $ 5.73 , ranging $5.67 -5.82 up 1-up 4
LH Nov mostly $ 5.76 , ranging $5.72 -5.82 up 4
12 pct protein $5.67 -5.82 up 1-up 4
13 pct protein mostly $ 5.87 , ranging $5.81 -5.87 up 6-up 4
13 pct protein - $5.81 -5.87 up 6-up 4
Milling Quality Montana Origin

US 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat (with a minimum of 300 falling numbers, a maximum
of 0.5 part per million vomitoxin, and a maximum of one percent total damage)
12 pct protein $5.61 -5.85 dn 7-up 7
13 pct protein $5.69 -5.93 dn 7-up 7
14 pct protein
FH Nov mostly $ 5.95 , ranging $5.77 -6.01 dn 7-up 7
LH Nov mostly $ 5.95 , ranging $5.78 -6.01 dn 7-up 7
15 pct protein $5.79 -6.03 dn 7-up 7
Guaranteed 15 pct protein NA

US 2 Barley
Unit trains & Barges-export (45 lbs.) NA
Merchandiser Bids-Single rail cars-domestic (48 lbs. or better)
Delivered to Portland NA
Delivered to inland feeding areas NA
FOB inland Country Elevators NA

US 2 Yellow Corn
Domestic-single rail cars
Delivered full coast-BN NA
Delivered to Portland NA
Rail and Truck del to Willamette Vly NA
Rail del to Yakima Valley NA
Truck del to Yakima Valley NA

US 2 Heavy White Oats $7.0000 unch

Exporter offers on Friday night for January shipment FOB shipped in
dollars per bushel:

US 2 or btr Soft White Wheat $ 5.06 unch
US 2 or btr Western White Wheat $ 5.11 unch
US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, ord.% $ 5.83 unch
US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, 11.5% $ 5.87 unch
US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, 13% $ 6.05 unch
US 2 or btr Northern Spring Wheat, 13% $ 5.98 up 2
US 2 or btr Dk Northern Spring Wheat, 14% $ 6.02 up 2
US 2 or btr Northern Spring Wheat, 14.5% $ 6.05 up 2
US 2 Barley NA no comp
US 3 Yellow Corn NA no comp

Exporter Bids Portland Rail/Barge October 2006
Averages in Dollars per bushel

No. 1 Soft White $4.97
No. 1 Hard Red Winter (Ordinary protein) $5.56
No. 1 Hard Red Winter (11.5% protein) $5.71
No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (14% protein) $5.80
No. 2 Barley $NA

Source: USDA Market News Service, Portland, OR
Martha Hansen (503) 326-2237
24 hour price information: (503) 326-2022
www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/jo gr110.txt

[AdamSmith]

I suppose this is just opinion too!

On the basis;

On Oct 13 I did a basis contract for 18000 bushels basis was 7.91/t over with a deposit to the pool acount (Adjustment factor) of 5.75/t for a basis of $2.16/t or 6 cents a bushel over Minn. I also pay $55/t in freight and elevation.


If you notice below Cash bids in Minn were 28 cents over December.

Bottineau ND Wheat was bid at 60 cents under Dec Minn. (68cents C$)

My Price was $1.44 C$ under.

I'm losing 76 cents on basis (the cost of our system) or$28/t (Oh my gawd, it's worse than I thought)


MS_GR115
Minneapolis, MN Thu Nov 02, 2006 USDA Market News

Minneapolis Weekly Grain Summary

Prices for the week ending Thursday, November 02, 2006

The Milling Spring Wheat cash market was slightly higher. Movement was very
light this past week as farmers were more concerned with their row crop harvest
than marketing their spring wheat. There has been an increase in trading of
Hard Red Winter wheat on the spot floor this crop season.

Exports: Of the Wheat, there were 601,440 metric tons of Wheat confirmed.
Breakdown of the wheat is as follows: 446,140 metric tons of Hard Red Winter,
29,800 metric tons of Northern/Dark Northern Spring, 120,000 metric tons of
Soft White and 5,500 metric tons of Western White Wheat confirmed. Of the feed
grains, there were 252,000 metric tons of Corn and 68,206 metric tons of Sorghum
confirmed. There were no oilseed or feed ingredient exports confirmed. **These
may not be the only export sales that have transpired this past week; however,
they are the only sales that could be confirmed by USDA Grain Market News.**

Spring Wheat: Prices are for US 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat with less
than 2.0 pct Vomitoxin. The 14 pct protein Spring Wheat was 1 3/4 to 6 3/4 cents
higher from 5.43 1/2-5.48 1/2, the basis was 5 to 10 cents higher from 40-45
cents over the Dec futures. Hard Red Winter Wheat 12 pct protein had no quote
on the spot market; the 20 day to-arrive bid was 6 3/4 cents higher at 5.31 1/2,
the basis was 10 cents higher at 28 cents over the Dec futures.

[kpb]

I'm with grassfarmer and Horse on this one. Verboven writes for Alberta Beef magazine, I think, which, in my view, is a mouthpiece for ABP, big feedlots, big packers and the status quo.


kpb

[AdamSmith]

Agstar77, this may not constitute proof to you, but this is information that is readily available to any farmer who cares to spend 2 minutes on the internet.

Just go to www.mgex.com/cash_markets.html

Stacked up against what real data the cwb puts out (which is nothing)about current sales numbers and prices. I'll go with this until I see something concrete from the cwb.

Agstar77, Basis is the costs to move grain from the interior to the end user or export position. And the numers I've shown above show the true cost of the cwb monopoly system to farmers.

These numbers are pretty overwhelming and I'm sure by the time this political exercise is over, every farmer in western Canada will be shown these numbers and what they truly mean.

[charliep]

Just a note the historical prices have been updated on the CWB web site. I direct everyones attention to the CWRW DPC versus FPC/PRO chart. The CWB own pricing would support the comments craig, AdamSmith, et al have been describing.

[agstar77]

AS, all this is based on the assumption that you could sell all your grain into this market . If you could sell it what effect would it have on that market? We could sit here and debate the so-called greener grass on the other side of the fence but in the end it is all a academic debate. As far as I can see American farmers are going out of business just as quickly as we are even with their superior system. You may be right that some of us will be better off with the system you propose and I don't dispute your numbers , but I don't believe most farmers will be better off with system you propose JMHO. Oh and by the way I have not said I don't trust the Multi-nationals, I just don't believe we can put all our faith in the goodwill of their boardroom, since the will always look after their shareholders first, and I don't have a problem with that.

[AdamSmith]

Agstar77, you said "AS, all this is based on the assumption that you could sell all your grain into this market . If you could sell it what effect would it have on that market?"

What do you mean by "this market"?

This market is the world wheat market. The world wheat market is affected by 1000 different things that are dynamic and changing every day. Having 1000 new Adam Smith selling individually into this market will have next to zero impact on this world wheat market. Agstar77 it's all the same grain and the same amounts.

Yes there would be a new dynamic in Canada but that will not effect the overall supply/demand picture. The new open market dynamic will effect the way Canadian Wheat comes into the market and the open market will always accept the grain.

As far as what the basis levels might be with wheat from our grain companies, I guess I think a decent indicator of an open market wheat basis would be by looking at a combination of the current open market crops basis levels and those American Northern tier wheat basis levels which the open market wheat will arbitrage with.

I guess I don't understand why you believe that it will only be "some" farmers who will benifit, but "most" won't?

The open market will provide opportunity for all. Many new opportunities in fact.

And I believe a voluntary CWBII has a fit within the open market for those who may feel like you. We just need to see a "Can Do" attitude from that organization.

[cowman]

Well the good thing the "Green Party" has about as much chance of ever running the show as I have of being President of the United States!
Nice kooks that the rebels without a cause can vote for? Sort of on par with the Rhino party?
Check out who these nuts are? Alot of farmers?

[ivbinconned]

Hear, hear Cowman, once again the voice of common sense!