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The end is nigh!

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    The end is nigh!

    The end is nigh

    Stelmach leads Tories like lemmings to their demise
    By Paul Jackson
    December 19, 2006

    We are now witnessing the death throes of the provincial Progressive Conservative dynasty, just as 35 years ago we witnessed the death throes of the provincial Social Credit dynasty.

    Dating myself somewhat, I will admit I was there then, as I am here now. Yet unlike yesterday, when Peter Lougheed had charm and vision, the political landscape unfolding before us leaves a huge chasm.

    Back then, it was Harry Strom, a small-town farmer who walked the Pied Piper route, and today it is Ed Stelmach, another small-town farmer, leading the lemmings.

    Liberal Leader Kevin Taft chortles as he sees this charade unfolding, as do any number of self-serving Calgary and Edmonton Liberal lawyers.

    Stelmach -- Steady Eddie, as the naive refer to him -- marched into his party's leadership race without any really defining policies, simply soft-peddling some vague philosophies.

    Astoundingly, the man from nowhere and with nothing to offer won.

    For this, I blame my good friend Jim Dinning. It was Jim's to lose, as they said, and Jim lost it to a likable, but somewhat feckless fellow who, with his new cabinet make-up, has surrounded himself with other somewhat likable but feckless fellows.

    Here I except newly-anointed finance minister Lyle Oberg, who is a good and decent man, if at times a loose cannon, as I myself admittedly am, and sustainable resource development minister Ted Morton, who is the only minister with intellectual toughness in Stelmach's weak cabal.

    Why blame Dinning?

    Because for some unfathomable reason, Jim believed he could stride to an easy victory, and then, after the first leadership ballot when that dream was blown away, made no attempt to stave off defeat.

    First, Jim was going to win on that first ballot, then 35% was the take-off point. But even that was not to be, as he garnered 30% of the vote.

    With that, he should have instantly been on the phone at least to Oberg, promising the Brooks doctor any position he wanted in a Dinning cabinet.

    Instead, he let Lyle drift into the Stelmach camp along with endorsements from Dave Hancock and Mark Norris.

    With that, the seal was almost set.

    Then, Dinning made a final, fatal, error.

    He lashed out, demonizing Morton.

    Obviously, unlike 99.9% of the rest of the civilized world's population, Jim had never read Dale Carnegie's masterful work How to Win Friends and Influence People.

    You don't pull people to your side (A) By ignoring them, or, (B) By bad-mouthing them.

    My autopsy is that, aside from never articulating some firm priorities in the Stephen Harper mode, Dinning's Achilles heel was to surround himself with political insiders out of touch with everything except their own personal interests.

    Here, I absolve Dinning's campaign manager, Alan Hallman, who is a top-notch fellow, and likely saw the disastrous scenario looming.

    What now?

    To do an end-run around a frightening Liberal grab for power, Morton, who surely deserved more than a token, almost irrelevant seat at the cabinet table, should carefully muster his forces and
    take them over to the Alberta Alliance.

    That's where the Conservative future now lies.

    #2
    Baloney. Steady Eddie is a lot tougher than he looks. Finally, after Klein's disastrous years, we have a decent honest and dedicated Premier.

    Dinning??? I don't think so...didn't like him as provincial treasurer and I am sure I would not care for him as Premier.

    Take your whine with you and go sulk somewhere else.

    Comment


      #3
      ...i would almost have to agree with wilagro on this one...but it is way to early...the opposition politicians want to turn this into a rural versus the cities issue but only stelmach's team will decide ...a lot of people had been growing impatience with the conservatives so there is nothing new here...your just being a messenger on this one are you not ivbinc... one more thing if dinning had this huge of an ego could we say.. is it not a good thing he never won...

      Comment


        #4
        Yes I am just the messanger, but in typical terrorist style...another drive by shooting!

        Comment


          #5
          I suspect Stelmach is fairly safe for the next six years? I sure hope the darned Liberals don't ever get in!
          And I also hope Stelmach can deal with some of these problems that really need to be addressed?
          I really don't see any kind of solution being offered to sustainable healthcare? Just saying we'll tighten her up...really doesn't cut it? Albertans need to deal with this and instead they continue to bury their heads in the sand! Ralph tried for years to bring some sanity into the issue...with little progress?
          I think the "boom" and resulting so called "overgrowth" is in full reverse? The oil and gas companies are in full shutdown mode! And without a doubt will be for most of 2007! Already they are moving rigs south in a big way...especially coiled tubing rigs! Exploration for light crude has basically come to a standstill...the same with coalbed methane!
          I expect there will be a lot of houses on the market next year as well as lots of repossessed pickups?
          I've got a buddy drilling deep holes up at Dawson Creek and he says he's got two experienced drillers working motors! He says you can pick and choose who you hire now! No end of experienced quality rig workers.

          Comment


            #6
            I question whether the boom is in full reverse.

            See:
            http://www.eub.gov.ab.ca/bbs/products/STs/st59/st59-current.pdf

            Drilling activity continues strong. There 80 wells spudded in yesterday in Alberta which seems to be about the same level of activity as Jan. 2006.

            Comment


              #7
              cowman, I doubt that there is a complete shut down mode, although a significant number of drilling proposals are for sour and some of them are going to a EUB review, but that is all smoke and mirrors anyway.

              #1 son got home yesterday, will head back on January 2, and apparently has work until breakup.

              Regardless of the drilling activity slowing down somewhat, the oil sands activity is picking up the pace. Suncor got their approval for the huge Voyager project etc. Many houses in Calgary and Edmonton are owned by people working in Fort Mac., and that market won't decrease.

              I think there is a levelling off of house prices which is a good thing.

              Comment


                #8
                Wonder of wonders some of those rigs have moved into Saskatchewan and have punched a few holes east of North Battleford...bring it on!

                Comment


                  #9
                  farmers son: When you've already paid up front...you go ahead and get it done? The drilling forcast for 2007 never said the first quarter was going to be a disaster...but check out the 2nd and 3rd quarters?
                  Coppertop: I believe you said your son was involved in reworking old wells...and in reality that is more of the service sector than exploration?
                  Make no mistake here, the long term viability of the oil patch isn't in question here? Just a pause...and in reality to bring some stability in to the cost of production? Unfortunately some people who can't get by without the monthly pay check are probably going to get burned!
                  And of course the tarsands are full speed ahead...probably should speed up some more if the truth was known!
                  But rig costs, pipeline costs were going nuts? A lot higher than in the USA? To bring a well into production in Alberta versus Texas...is 33% more...and that is serious money.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    cowman, I agree with your comments, and yes, my son is a consultant involved with reworking old wells to either bring them into production or abandon them. He has to rely on the agricultural industry's desire for winter work to get good rig crews, which in his case are mainly farm boys from Saskatchewan. His sector hasn't slowed down, it is tied to the price of oil, anything below $60.00 makes the companies take a second look at the feasibility of workovers.

                    Traveling in this community, I note a lot of rig moves in progress over the past couple of weeks, no either they are going somewhere to be racked for the rest of the season or they are moving to new leases. Either way it makes travel interesting, when you combine super sized trucks, pilot vehicles and the average day to day traffic of logging trucks tankers, chip trucks from the mill etc. !! Not bad when the highways are in good winter condition but it is sure a challenge when there is blowing snow.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Boy did this topic swing.

                      I think Paul Jackson has a point. In Ed's first news conference he echoed some of the concerns Morton has been articulating for a long time.

                      Isn't this what Ralph would have done, and did do for years...utter the words that resonate with a certain constinuency hoping they will think your a champion of their concerns. Meanwhile having no intentions to do so.
                      Morton would have been the logical choice for intergovernmental affairs or some such thing that is more in line with his well known interests.

                      Is this Ed's way of keeping him close... but marginalizing him??

                      Comment


                        #12
                        I highly doubt that Ted Morton is the only cabinet minister with intellectual toughness. One example that may surprise a lot of people is Ray Danyluk, the Minister of Municipal Affairs.
                        Firstly: the Premier decides on which individual to put in particular cabinet porfolios. Morton has NEVER been in cabinet, SRD is a challenging ministry, and I would suspect that the Premier wants to see how Morton will do dealing with the various and sundry issues that face that porfolio.
                        Secondly: Ministers do NOT necessarily get appointed to the ministry THEY feel best suits their interests, Cabinet is NOT a shopping list for MLA's. Ed has worked with all these folks and has had plenty of time to see how they perform as MLA's, so it is very likely he has placed them in Ministrys where he feels their talents lie.
                        The leadership campaign is over, Morton is NOT the Premier, so perhaps we need to let the Premier do his job and not second guess his every move, until he shows that he isn't capable. I have the utmost confidence in his ability to not only make cabinet choices but to ensure that each Minister is doing the job they were appointed to do. He has indicated that this is the cabinet that will go into the next election, so he is going to set some goals and expect results.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Coppertop: I agree with you on this one! Eds the man and I think he will manage the show as good as anyone could. In reality if you are the boss you have to be the BOSS and make the tough decisions?
                          He made his picks, he has to live with them, so I would think he knows what he is doing?
                          I will tell you I have never been much of a supporter of the PC party of Alberta, although I did vote for Ralph second time around...partly because I thought he should be rewarded for keeping his promise to cut government...and partly because I was worried the Decore Liberals just might get in! And I think if the Liberals look like they stand a chance next time...I would definitely vote PC!
                          The other thing is this: Whoever is premier of this province...he is MY premier and deserves our support? I always supported Ralph on this site...no matter what stupid things he did...because I believe he was a true Albertan and had the best interests of the people at heart! I believe Ed Stelmach has the best interests of the Alberta at heart, too! He is ours...and yes the election is over!

                          Comment


                            #14
                            ...here here cowman...but someone should remind ty lund ...he seems to be a little bitter with his cut in salary...hey ty ...now you can feel like us ranchers with the cut in pay we have endured the last 5 years...lol

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Ty Lund seems to feel that by virtue of the fact he has been an MLA forever he is ENTITLED to a cabinet post !! Personally, I respect Ty for his contribution not only as an MLA but a municipal councillor and Reeve, however, there comes a time when new blood is necessary, and Ed has obviously chosen that route.

                              cowman, over the years I too, supported Ralph, although his lacklustre performance the last few years certainly put his tried and true supporters to the test. Our new premier needs to know that Albertans are willing to give him the chance to govern. From what I am hearing, there seems to be overwhelming support for his cabinet other than in the major cities who also have a feeling of ENTITLEMENT regarding influence in cabinet.

                              Dinning has made it clear that he is NOT going to run whenever there is a by-election to fill the seat vacated by Ralphs retirement. No surprise there, he wanted the whole enchalada or nothing.

                              Comment

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