Prairie Clean Energy

[Hamloc]

?
I was just joking when I suggested you enact a law that the wind can't stop blowing in all three provinces at once. But I see you took it seriously. Good luck with mandating the sun to never stop shining in at least one prairie province at once. But that is the level of wishful thinking that the entire green energy scam is built on. Hope that the wind will always blow, and the sun will always shine somewhere.

You just finished telling us that Manitoba is going to add wind and solar to meet RISING DEMAND, and build no additional hydro. Now you continue to claim that the rest of the provinces can continue to use hydro to back up their own intermittent wind and solar. Do you not see the problem with this strategy?

And in response to you concern about my lights being able to tell the difference. First of all, it isn't my lights I am worried about. No one is going to die because the lights went out( unless they are on the operating table). Lights are a convenience. Whereas heat, ventilation, refrigeration, medical support, water, waste water etc are necessities of modern life. people literally die without them.
And secondly, lights absolutely can tell the difference. As you may not be aware, most demand for lighting occurs when it is dark outside. Do you know the average capacity factor for your solar panels when it is dark outside? How well is your solar powered flashlight working so far?

AB5 if only wind and solar are used to meet increased demand does that mean there will only be increased demand during daylight hours? Or only increased demand on windy days? I went to a talk on improving spraying efficiency by Tom Wolf. He had an interesting chart showing that most days the wind is calmer before 7 in the morning and after 8 at night but that efficacy of herbicides is much better when applied during the day. But the point is that there is less wind during the night and obviously no solar. Therefore if Manitoba is seeing increasing demand, wind and solar can only be part of the solution. And if there isn’t enough hydro to supply increased demand how can Manitoba export hydro power to Saskatchewan and Alberta?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

AB5 if only wind and solar are used to meet increased demand does that mean there will only be increased demand during daylight hours? Or only increased demand on windy days? I went to a talk on improving spraying efficiency by Tom Wolf. He had an interesting chart showing that most days the wind is calmer before 7 in the morning and after 8 at night but that efficacy of herbicides is much better when applied during the day. But the point is that there is less wind during the night and obviously no solar. Therefore if Manitoba is seeing increasing demand, wind and solar can only be part of the solution. And if there isn’t enough hydro to supply increased demand how can Manitoba export hydro power to Saskatchewan and Alberta?

When you word it like that, it sounds increasingly like a Ponzi scheme, doesn't it?
Everyone everywhere is going to retire base load generation, and not build any new ones.
Everyone everywhere is going to increase electrical demand with electric cars and electric heat etc.
Everyone everywhere is going to increase wind and solar to meet the increasing demand.
And everyone everywhere is going to rely on borrowing reliable base load power from somewhere else.
Except every one of those somebody else's will be trying to do the exact same thing at the exact same time.
What could possibly go wrong?

Sounds a lot like our current global financial system. Except we haven't figured out how to print energy yet.

[foragefarmer]

AB5 if only wind and solar are used to meet increased demand does that mean there will only be increased demand during daylight hours? Or only increased demand on windy days? I went to a talk on improving spraying efficiency by Tom Wolf. He had an interesting chart showing that most days the wind is calmer before 7 in the morning and after 8 at night but that efficacy of herbicides is much better when applied during the day. But the point is that there is less wind during the night and obviously

solar. Therefore if Manitoba is seeing increasing demand, wind and solar can only be part of the solution. And if there isn’t enough hydro to supply increased demand how can Manitoba export hydro power to Saskatchewan and Alberta?

Mb. Hydro doesn't currently export any hydro to Alberta, only to Ontario, Sask, Minn. and Wisc.

"Revenue from our power exports brought in more than 22% of our total electric revenue 2010–19, or about $3.9 billion."

These hydro exports subsidize Manitobans by 25%. Very happy it is publicly owned as it's a very reliable service and the grid is maintained second to none. Never any issues at the farm.

Mb Hydro is well positioned for the future with 12 generating stations.

Flowing rivers will be here forever and if there not neither will you and I.

What hell is happening in Ab. , Smith taking over hydro in so called capitalist Alberta?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

they put the cart way way before the horse and reality is kicking in .

I would say it's even worse than putting the cart before the horse. The imbeciles who hoisted the green energy scam upon us should have at least had the common sense to only destroy the cart or the horse at once, instead of both at the same time.
If they want us all to switch to electric vehicles and electric heat, then perhaps they shouldn't have destroyed the reliability and affordability of the electrical grid simultaneously.
And if they want us to switch to expensive unreliable energy, then perhaps they shouldn't have simultaneously colluded to increase demand through electric vehicles and electric heat.
Either one by itself would have been a tough sell. But by destroying both at the same time, it ruined any chances of either being viable.?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Mb. Hydro doesn't currently export any hydro to Alberta, only to Ontario, Sask, Minn. and Wisc.

"Revenue from our power exports brought in more than 22% of our total electric revenue 2010–19, or about $3.9 billion."

These hydro exports subsidize Manitobans by 25%. Very happy it is publicly owned as it's a very reliable service and the grid is maintained second to none. Never any issues at the farm.

Mb Hydro is well positioned for the future with 12 generating stations.

Flowing rivers will be here forever and if there not neither will you and I.

Well said. The ultimate reliable renewable affordable energy.
I Really admire the business model of places like Manitoba or Quebec or Norway who are taking full advantage of those jurisdictions who purposefully destroyed their own power grids.
Whenever Chuck is questioned about where base load power will come from, is go to answer is that Manitoba hydro can provide the power to Alberta and Saskatchewan when they install too much wind and solar.
?
What do you think about the information Chuck posted, indicating that Manitoba hydro intends to build wind and solar, and no more new hydro to meet expanding demand?
Do you think they will still be able to export electricity to other provinces to subsidize Manitoba electricity rates?

[littledoggie]

I'm glad that there will be some capture of carbon IF in the future it becomes apparent that a mistake was made.

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-danielle-smith-carbon-capture-projects

[chuckChuck]

A lot of uninformed ranting and raving as usual about renewables but Transalta has them front and centre in their long term plan. But you are still pretty sure they don't work to expand generation capacity?

TransAlta going greener: Power generator to spend $3.5B on renewables by end of 2028

Calgary company plans to add 1,750 MW of clean power capacity within 5 years

?The Calgary-based company, which has brought online more than 800 megawatts of wind and solar power since 2021 alone, said it will add an additional 1,750 MW of clean power within the next five years.

Most of that new generation will be organic growth — developing wind and solar projects from scratch — though the company is also open to growth through mergers and acquisitions if the right opportunity comes along, said TransAlta CEO John Kousinioris in an interview.

"What's interesting about it is just the impact it will have on our company," Kousinioris said of the new growth projections.

"It will end up pushing us pretty firmly into a more contracted and greener generation company. By 2028 and, frankly, even earlier, somewhere in the range of 70 per cent of our EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) will come from renewables."

Currently, approximately 40 per cent of TransAlta's EBITDA is attributable to renewable energy. The company is one of the largest producers of wind power in Canada, having grown its total renewable energy capacity from approximately 900 MW in 2000 to more than 2,900 MW in 2022.

But just a decade ago, the company's bread-and-butter was its large fleet of coal-fired power plants. TransAlta's move to convert those coal-fired plants to natural gas, at a cost of close to $300 million, was completed in late 2021 and has been widely hailed as a significant environmental accomplishment.

Shifting away from coal has reduced TransAlta's greenhouse gas emissions by 32 million tonnes annually — or 76 per cent — from what they were in 2005. Not turning its back on natural gas

TransAlta is not turning its back on natural gas. The company recently announced a $658-million acquisition of Heartland Generation, a deal that adds 1,844 MW of gas-fired electricity production — mostly in Alberta — to the company's portfolio.

Kousinioris said natural gas-fired plants that can serve as a backup to renewables during periods of peak demand will still be necessary going forward, adding the company is looking at a handful of opportunities to "round out" its natural gas fleet.

But renewables are the future, he said, adding the "overwhelming majority" of TransAlta's growth in the coming years will be in the clean electricity space.
?

[ajl]

Well said. The ultimate reliable renewable affordable energy.
I Really admire the business model of places like Manitoba or Quebec or Norway who are taking full advantage of those jurisdictions who purposefully destroyed their own power grids.
Whenever Chuck is questioned about where base load power will come from, is go to answer is that Manitoba hydro can provide the power to Alberta and Saskatchewan when they install too much wind and solar.
?
What do you think about the information Chuck posted, indicating that Manitoba hydro intends to build wind and solar, and no more new hydro to meet expanding demand?
Do you think they will still be able to export electricity to other provinces to subsidize Manitoba electricity rates?

I think that the debt associated with manitoba hydro will bankrupt that province so that hydro is not all that viable either. Lucky for them they receive, not pay equalization. When we were in Drayton, we drove out to check out the Brazeau hydro plant and we do not get much power out of there otherwise the reservoir would be empty. MB hydro is exporting power at below average cost to Minn. Our REA (Lakeland) even lowered the power cost for 2024. We were paying 11.2 but it will drop to 10.2 cent per kwh in 2024. We have some of the highest cost power in AB but my guess is that it will soon be cheaper in AB over MB. We still have 3 coal fired generators and should refurbish some more for even lower cost power.

[foragefarmer]

I think that the debt associated with manitoba hydro will bankrupt that province so that hydro is not all that viable either. Lucky for them they receive, not pay equalization. When we were in Drayton, we drove out to check out the Brazeau hydro plant and we do not get much power out of there otherwise the reservoir would be empty. MB hydro is exporting power at below average cost to Minn. Our REA (Lakeland) even lowered the power cost for 2024. We were paying 11.2 but it will drop to 10.2 cent per kwh in 2024. We have some of the highest cost power in AB but my guess is that it will soon be cheaper in AB over MB. We still have 3 coal fired generators and should refurbish some more for even lower cost power.

Manitoba Hydro's 2022-March 31/2023 annual report states the following:
(millions of dollars)

Revenues
Manitoba 1 934
Extraprovincial 1 131

Expenses 2 622 2

Net income (loss) before net movement in regulatory balances 443
Net movement in regulatory balances 147

Net income (loss) 590

We'll see how efficient your hydro is in so-called capitalist Alberta when Smith takes over it.

By the way do you enjoy your tax dollars being put to work cleaning up all those abandoned pump jacks spread throughout Alberta.

What benefit from your tax dollars you getting out of that at the homestead ajl, cheaper hydro?

Instead of Alberta having to separate from Canada why didn't you try a little harder to buy the CRP land in Montana.

[blackpowder]

I'm not sure how much hydro capacity AB or SK geography allows.

Well cleanup is many times costlier than necessary because of over regulation and corporate pork barreling. 1 shovel hand to 3 consultants. 4" of paper for a 50 yr old dry hole cap.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Manitoba Hydro's 2022-March 31/2023 annual report states the following:
(millions of dollars)

Revenues
Manitoba 1 934
Extraprovincial 1 131

Expenses 2 622 2

Net income (loss) before net movement in regulatory balances 443
Net movement in regulatory balances 147

Net income (loss) 590

Exactly. Cheap, reliable, profitable, predictable, environmentally friendly. It gives Manitoba the ability to sell power to jurisdictions with wind and solar at extortionate rates. And absorb their excess for pennies on the dollar. In fact, the precedent in other parts of the world, is that Manitoba will be paid to take the excess generation from wind and solar.
So why is Chuck cheering for Manitoba hydro planning to install vastly more expensive wind and solar?
Why would they kill the Golden goose, and who do you think will inevitably pay for it?
As a Manitoba taxpayer and consumer, What is your opinion of this?

[foragefarmer]

I'm not sure how much hydro capacity AB or SK geography allows.

Well cleanup is many times costlier than necessary because of over regulation and corporate pork barreling. 1 shovel hand to 3 consultants. 4" of paper for a 50 yr old dry hole cap.

So your government uses your tax dollars to clean up the mess left by a resource, while our government uses our tax dollars to create a renewable resource.

Yes, I know Manitoba is a have not province so we are using some your dollars to get the resource operational.

But, it is a better use.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

So as it turns out, green hydrogen in Germany isn't economic:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/11/22/north-german-green-hydrogen-project-halted-due-to-lack-of-economy-major-economic-risks/

But building it off shore in Canada, then shipping across the ocean to Germany will make it economical.

Doesn't Chuck keep telling us that hydrogen is the future?

Remember back when our economically and scientifically challenged prime minister told Germany that there was no business case for exporting natural gas. But we would export hydrogen for them instead?

That's still not working out very well.
Turns out there is no demand, no supply, and no infrastructure in the middle. Other than that it's working out exactly as expected.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-germany-green-hydrogen-export/

[chuckChuck]

Natural gas exports to Germany aren't going to do well in the long run.


‘Hype’ meets reality as Canada’s plans to export hydrogen to Germany stall

[url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-germany-green-hydrogen-export/[/url]

"In July, Karina Häuslmeier, deputy head of mission at the German embassy in Ottawa, told journalists that imports of gas to Germany are projected to drop by 30 per cent by the end of this decade and almost completely disappear by 2050. In late September, Germany’s special envoy for international climate policy, Jennifer Morgan, echoed that German and European demand would fall in the coming decades, in line with Europe’s 2045 net-zero goals."

Canada’s efforts to establish a green hydrogen supply chain with European countries are being delayed by a supply-demand mismatch and the largest wave of global inflation in decades, hurdles that will see it fail in its goal to export hydrogen to Germany by 2025.

Canada and Germany first signed a memorandum of understanding ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-signs-deal-with-germany-to-export-hydrogen-to-europe-by-2025/[/url]) to develop a transatlantic green hydrogen corridor in 2022, as Germany looked to cut its dependence on fossil fuels imported from Russia and decarbonize its heavy industries. But just months before the end of the 2024, no green hydrogen facilities in Atlantic Canada have been completed, financial terms with German companies remain elusive and infrastructure in Europe is far from ready.

The sobering reality of the green hydrogen deal belies the challenge of balancing large-scale infrastructure investments and meagre current demand, a chicken-and-egg problem that’s common with nascent technologies – one that is delaying hydrogen timelines globally.

Without an attractive price and the necessary infrastructure, German offtakers – end users – aren’t ready to sign deals with Canadian firms. But offtake agreements are crucial to demonstrate project viability to investors; without them, Canadian producers, who have high upfront costs, can’t secure final investment decisions and start production. Meanwhile, German pipeline builders, which will finance construction with user fees, won’t start building until these deals are in place.

In a statement, Natural Resources Canada spokesperson Michael MacDonald said the 2025 goal was “ambitious.” The first shipments will be “close to the original 2025 target,” he said, without providing a specific year. Canadian projects are at a range of planning phases, with some having started construction, he added.

“The aim is still to have the first shipments happen in the mid-2020s, probably around 2026, 2027 or 2028,” said Jens Honnen, an energy policy adviser at German consultancy Adelphi. Mr. Honnen is leading the implementation of the German-Canadian energy partnership on behalf of the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action.

There are about 10 promising production projects in the Atlantic provinces, but none have secured a final investment decision yet, Mr. Honnen said.
?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

imports of gas to Germany are projected to drop by 30 per cent by the end of this decade and almost completely disappear by 2050.
?

That is a bold prediction.
Predicting that Germany will be completely deindustrialized by 2050 due to expensive renewable energy.

Personally, I also think betting on exporting LNG to Germany isn't viable long term.

Because it is inevitable that they will return to Russian gas as soon as possible. Their economic future literally depends on it.