The Rise (And Fall?) of Inflation in Canada: A Detailed Analysis

[chuckChuck]

The Rise (And Fall?) of Inflation in Canada: A Detailed Analysis of Its Post-Pandemic Experience

?[url]https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4215492[/url]

The small cost of a carbon price

Recent research has clearly established that a significant portion of the increase in inflation stemmed from a global surge in energy prices. Carbon pricing and other indirect tax changes (such as sales and excise taxes) have contributed minimally. We know this because Statistics Canada regularly tracks and reports on price changes that strip out the effect of indirect taxes.

With the latest data, we find that the gradually increasing indirect taxes, including carbon taxes, have caused overall consumer prices to be only 0.6 per cent higher in October 2023 than they were in January 2015.

This indicates that nearly all the overall price increases in 2021 through 2023 are due to other factors. Similarly, recent declines in inflation are primarily due to falling energy prices.
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[chuckChuck]

Rise, Stall, or Fall: The Key Drivers Behind Inflation’s Path in Canada

Monetary Policy | November 14, 2023

?[url]https://www.cdhowe.org/public-policy-research/rise-stall-or-fall-key-drivers-behind-inflations-path-canada[/url]

• Inflation surged in most advanced economies in 2021 and 2022 before easing considerably in 2023. In Canada, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.1 percent in the year ending June 2022, then declined to 2.8 percent by June 2023 – the most pronounced acceleration and deceleration in the pace of price changes in decades. Canada’s inflation experience is not unique: in the United States, consumer price growth peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, while the Euro Area peaked at 10.6 percent in October 2022.
• In this paper, we examine several key drivers of Canada’s recent decline in inflation. In particular, we measure product-level price changes and identify whether they are mainly supply-driven (i.e., energy prices, wages, or other input costs) or demand-driven (i.e., consumer expenditures, fiscal policy, and so on). We find most of the decline can be attributed to the falling price of energy, a product directly purchased by households and an input in the production of nearly all goods and services.
• Both supply- and demand-side factors have played a role, with a substantial reduction in demand-driven factors accounting for most of the overall fall in the pace of consumer price growth. Today, a greater portion of the remaining price pressures stem from supply-side factors, especially in housing and groceries. It may be necessary for the Bank of Canada to continue implementing a robust tightening of monetary policy to counteract the price pressure from the supply side.

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[sumdumguy]

Wonder where you got that piece? My farm Sask Energy bill reads like this:
Gas Delivery Service = .36
Gas Supply Cost = 59.66
Federal Carbon Tax = 58.49

Carbon Tax equal to Gas Cost

[Guest]

Mine too , and mines equalized so that’s $720/year just for a liberal tax that has accomplished SFA (just one portion of it)
and the two shops and farm house are 99 gas, 97 liberal tax, 115 distribution, not equalized but warm november
anyone thinking they are getting more back than they pay has rock’s in their head

[fjlip]

CC, rattle those rocks...small cost? Like F, it's DOUBLE cost!

[Hamloc]

Financial Post: “Small businesses warn ‘unfair’ carbon taxes will force them to hike prices.”

From the article: “Small and medium-sized businesses are major contributors to the federal carbon tax, and since 2019 have remitted almost half of the $22 billion in revenue the carbon tax has brought in, the report said. But, while consumers have received rebates for their contributions, small businesses haven’t been so lucky. CFIB estimates that a mere 0.17 per cent of carbon tax revenues—or $35 million—were returned to entrepreneurs between the fiscal years of 2019-2020 and 2022-2023.” This was before the carbon tax rose to $65 a tonne of C02 equivalent on April 1, 2023. The most important part to realize is Justin Trudeau is lying when he says the tax is revenue neutral because while consumers are rebated for the tax they are charged, businesses are not!!! An important point that we are never told!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Plus Quebec is exempt…for all who heat using electricity… plus a special deal on fuel… political manipulation…

[chuckChuck]

"With the latest data, we find that the gradually increasing indirect taxes, including carbon taxes, have caused overall consumer prices to be only 0.6 per cent higher in October 2023 than they were in January 2015."

Energy prices due to market forces and the war in the Ukraine had a much greater impact on inflation than the carbon tax. And a lot of the increase went into record profits for the oil companies and there was no rebate from the oil company to consumers!

[Guest]

*** man , you are hopeless
same thing over and over
it’s fine , true dope is done
get over it

[chuckChuck]

The facts speak for themselves.

Crypto is counting on the fact that he can lie about inflation and blame it all on Trudeau. And sheep like you are gullible enough to believe it!

Energy price rises cost far more.

[rumrocks]

I was not aware that Trudeau has his degree in Mechanical Engineering but apparently as one poster on the internet said, "Trudeau has somehow managed to increase the size of my gas tank from holding 60 dollars to 110 dollars worth of gas."

[rastafarian]

I am sure the posters on here will Credit Trudeau for lowering the inflation in the same way they Blamed him for Increasing inflation........ ....eh maybe not

[rumrocks]

I am sure the posters on here will Credit Trudeau for lowering the inflation in the same way they Blamed him for Increasing inflation........ ....eh maybe not

Lets not forget if people have less money to spend, that can partially help lower inflation by slower spending which equates to lower prices. I would credit consumers before the man who goes long on kerosene futures.

[J88]

The last time I filled with propane I was charged 18.8 percent carbon tax I must be getting scammed if this is not adding to my cost and adding to inflation for me. I wonder since if the carbon tax is dropped on natural gas here in Saskatchewan if that applies to propane or am I getting scammed again (I don’t have access to natural gas where I live)

[foragefarmer]

Financial Post: “Small businesses warn ‘unfair’ carbon taxes will force them to hike prices.”

From the article: “Small and medium-sized businesses are major contributors to the federal carbon tax, and since 2019 have remitted almost half of the $22 billion in revenue the carbon tax has brought in, the report said. But, while consumers have received rebates for their contributions, small businesses haven’t been so lucky. CFIB estimates that a mere 0.17 per cent of carbon tax revenues—or $35 million—were returned to entrepreneurs between the fiscal years of 2019-2020 and 2022-2023.” This was before the carbon tax rose to $65 a tonne of C02 equivalent on April 1, 2023. The most important part to realize is Justin Trudeau is lying when he says the tax is revenue neutral because while consumers are rebated for the tax they are charged, businesses are not!!! An important point that we are never told!!!

Hamloc, this is where my business, personal and family members tax dollars went!

Globe and Mail article Dec 28/2023

"An internal government briefing note from July 15, 2021, obtained by The Globe and Mail through an access-to-information request, estimated there were 40,000 CEBA recipients who would be in default for some $1.6-billion worth of loans because of errors on their applications.

The government issued a total of $49-billion in CEBA loans to nearly 900,000 businesses in 2020 and 2021. Ottawa recently reported that 176,353 of those businesses had paid back their loans as of Aug. 31, adding that $38.7-billion in loans were outstanding as of Oct. 25."

40000 small business don't even know how to fill out a document let alone run business.

How much time are you given if you make a mistake on your tax return, or if you owe CRA money?

How many of these businesses are hoping the Feds extent the CEBA deadline again or that the whole $60000.00 is forgiven by the government?.

Hamloc, ask yourself how many businesses took the $60K loan for the $20K free money that didn't need it.

They had no issues with the Trudeau Liberal government when taking government money did they?