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The slow slide into drought

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    The slow slide into drought

    The slow slide into drought

    The current Prairie moisture situation is the result of years of ongoing precipitation deficits

    Daniel Bezte



    ​We had a fairly major storm system on the Prairies last week, but it was not strong enough to warrant major attention.
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    Manitoba received the most moisture from this system, with widespread 20 to 30 millimetres of rain mixed with snow. The northern half of agricultural Saskatchewan, along with the far eastern regions, also saw totals ranging from five to 15 mm. Parts of southern and central Alberta had precipitation, mostly as snow, with amounts ranging from four to 12 cm.

    While this moisture is welcome, it will do little to alleviate drought conditions ([url]https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/news-opinion/news/another-drought-year-maybe-not-so-much/[/url]) that have been developing across the Prairies for several years.

    The last time we looked at weather data, I showed it in tables because it seemed the best way to get the information across. This time I created a series of graphs to tease out precipitation. I looked at yearly precipitation for two main centres in each province going back five years (2018-2023).

    The first graph shows the precipitation anomaly for each location over those five years, done by adding up precipitation each year compared to the average amount for each year. What jumps out at me is the precipitation deficit in Regina and Saskatoon. Both locations have received 700 mm less than average. Calgary and Edmonton had much lower deficits, around 200 to 300 mm.

    The second graph shows yearly precipitation totals for each location compared to average. What jumps out to me right away is that very few locations and years were above average, which shows why the Prairies have been slowly slipping into a longer-term drought.

    The third graph shows precipitation at each location over the last five years. Like the first graph, it helps to visualize total amounts without considering averages. Of interest is that totals for Winnipeg, Brandon and Edmonton are close to each other and Calgary is only a little behind. As expected, Regina and Saskatoon received much less precipitation than the other locations, more than a metre less.

    The fourth graph breaks total precipitation into yearly amounts. There is not a lot of difference between the years, but 2022 was a wet year for Winnipeg and Brandon.

    There is no obvious cause for the build up of drought conditions, such as a couple of super dry years. Rather, the slow lack of precipitation over the past five years has brought us to this point.

    We have also seen several summers with well above average temperatures across the Prairies, which increases evaporation and evapotranspiration and makes below average precipitation even worse It will take more than a couple of wet months to bring an end to the drought. Hopefully, with El Nino coming to an end, we will see a shift toward a wetter pattern.

    [url]https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/weather/the-slow-slide-into-drought/?utm_source=GFM+Publications&utm_campaign=8cd457db 39-Manitoba+Co-operator+daily+enews+Apr+30%2C+2024&utm_medium=ema il&utm_term=0_2da8244677-8cd457db39-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=8cd457db39&mc_eid=006b2 8ff62[/url]

    Last edited by chuckChuck; May 1, 2024, 07:03.

    #4
    You climate change deniers should be happy if you think more CO2 along with hotter and drier summers are good for us!

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      #5
      ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️?????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????

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        #6
        Sure says the climate change denier who doesn't do science!

        Are you going to deny the temperature and precipitation record for the last 5 years too? And claim its wrong!

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          #7
          I sure hope we never again see years in Manitoba like 2011 and a few years after when it was too wet to do anything , huge amount of land not seeded or dround out ,lots here still have too wet too seed insurance because of the nightmare of them years
          Last edited by cropgrower; May 1, 2024, 07:25.

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            #8
            Yep it wrong. The liberals /ndp lie about it every day. It's not hard to figure out!!! But since your a complete phyco you can't even figure that out!!! Or maybe you're just a wacko!!! Oh Yes you are a wacko!!!!!!! Bahhhhhaaaaa!!!

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              #9
              So Crypto PP says climate change is real so he must be a wacko too?

              Robert and Crop you might as well join BL in his flat earth crusade!
              And tell us hotter and dryer summers will be good for us!

              Comment


                #10
                **** you're an idiot!! Climate has change since the beginning of time! You radical imbeciles can't change it!! You are a free loader and so are the rest of the cult club.

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                  #11
                  Not a single human can predict weather, but we all KNOW more C02 is better for plants, gee what do we all GROW?

                  Comment


                    #12
                    What long term average is being compared to here? Is it the typical 25, or 30 year period? The entire instrument record? The historical reconstructions going back centuries?

                    Assuming it is the most recent 25 or 30 year period used in climate science, is this actually a slide into drought, or a return to the mean?
                    The preceding 30 years have seen some exceptionally wet years on the semi arid prairies, compared to the historical record.

                    How do the numbers look if compared to the entire historical record?

                    Comment


                      #13
                      Originally posted by chuckChuck View Post
                      You climate change deniers should be happy if you think more CO2 along with hotter and drier summers are good for us!
                      Your information shows a drought pattern. Where does it prove a theory?

                      Comment


                        #14
                        Chuck how are your arson pals going to light up Ab this spring with 6 inches of snow on the ground.

                        Comment


                          #15
                          When I started farming back in the early 1980’s it was quite dry so drought was often a worry.
                          I remember hearing stories on the radio that University researchers were studying lake bottom sediment and they were making warnings that the dry years we were experiencing were relatively mild. They could see that in Saskatchewan’s past drought was much more severe with droughts lasting for 30 years or more! That was scientific peer reviewed research at the time
                          It’s laughable that you of all people would post research that only shows 5 years showing a drying trend as proof of climate change.

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