Climate change will knock one-third off world economy, study shows

[AlbertaFarmer5]

More human caused climate change denial?

More CO2 will be good for us?

Have you considered responding to my actual post?

[furrowtickler]

And then the rains return in the natural 20 year cycle across the prairies , from drought to rains as the natural changes occur in the La Niña to El Niño…

[furrowtickler]

Subsoil moisture levels being replenished in all areas in western Canada , except far NW Alberta and NE BC for now
although some areas very wet now , most areas the crop is in or will get in the next two weeks as a drier pattern will set up now after the full moon .
will be a struggle for some areas for sure as they are very wet now .
Drought crop insurance payments won’t be even mentioned by fall and the high crop insurance payments will be added to provincial general coffers with not a word .
life will carry on

[chuckChuck]

Weather is still going to vary from year to year. And its great there is more moisture this year.

But climate is measured over 30 year periods. And we have an ongoing decline in precipitation in many areas for several years along with often higher temperatures and more drying.

A few weeks won't change or make up for the past moisture deficit.

[furrowtickler]

A few weeks of moisture already has made up moisture deficits in 90% of western Canada , as it did in the western U.S. last year and all through the mid west US the past 2 weeks .

[chuckChuck]

Not the deficit for the last 5 years! That would take above average precipitation for several years.

[furrowtickler]

Watch soil moisture maps the next few weeks .

[chuckChuck]

Furrow, Regina and Saskatoon had a 700 mm precipitation deficit from 2018-2023.With several summers of above average temperatures.

The longer term drought doesn't get reversed in one rainy May. But it is still welcome to be sure.


The slow slide into drought

The current Prairie moisture situation is the result of years of ongoing precipitation deficits

([url]https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/contributor/daniel-bezte/[/url])
By Daniel Bezte ([url]https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/contributor/daniel-bezte/[/url])


Reading Time: 2 minutes
Published: April 29, 2024



Source: Daniel Bezte We had a fairly major storm system on the Prairies last week, but it was not strong enough to warrant major attention.

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Manitoba received the most moisture from this system, with widespread 20 to 30 millimetres of rain mixed with snow. The northern half of agricultural Saskatchewan, along with the far eastern regions, also saw totals ranging from five to 15 mm. Parts of southern and central Alberta had precipitation, mostly as snow, with amounts ranging from four to 12 cm.


While this moisture is welcome, it will do little to alleviate drought conditions ([url]https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/news-opinion/news/another-drought-year-maybe-not-so-much/[/url]) that have been developing across the Prairies for several years.
The last time we looked at weather data, I showed it in tables because it seemed the best way to get the information across. This time I created a series of graphs to tease out precipitation. I looked at yearly precipitation for two main centres in each province going back five years (2018-2023).
The first graph shows the precipitation anomaly for each location over those five years, done by adding up precipitation each year compared to the average amount for each year. What jumps out at me is the precipitation deficit in Regina and Saskatoon. Both locations have received 700 mm less than average. Calgary and Edmonton had much lower deficits, around 200 to 300 mm.
The second graph shows yearly precipitation totals for each location compared to average. What jumps out to me right away is that very few locations and years were above average, which shows why the Prairies have been slowly slipping into a longer-term drought.
Source: Daniel Bezte
The third graph shows precipitation at each location over the last five years. Like the first graph, it helps to visualize total amounts without considering averages. Of interest is that totals for Winnipeg, Brandon and Edmonton are close to each other and Calgary is only a little behind. As expected, Regina and Saskatoon received much less precipitation than the other locations, more than a metre less.
The fourth graph breaks total precipitation into yearly amounts. There is not a lot of difference between the years, but 2022 was a wet year for Winnipeg and Brandon.
There is no obvious cause for the build up of drought conditions, such as a couple of super dry years. Rather, the slow lack of precipitation over the past five years has brought us to this point.

We have also seen several summers with well above average temperatures across the Prairies, which increases evaporation and evapotranspiration and makes below average precipitation even worse It will take more than a couple of wet months to bring an end to the drought. Hopefully, with El Nino coming to an end, we will see a shift toward a wetter pattern.

[furrowtickler]

Time will..

[chuckChuck]

This may indeed be a wetter year for many but the last 5 years were not.

[cropgrower]

What caused the droughts back in the 70s and 80s in our area of manitoba mr agrisilly ? old guy here talks about seeding a crop of wheat got one rain after seeding and not another drop until harvest , about 2 small square bales of straw per acre , never been anywhere close to that dry since , was it fossil fuels then ?

[chuckChuck]

Likely a combination of natural variabilty and human caused climate change which is certainly at play now. Maybe less so in the 1980s.