Canadians believe Mark Carney would be better than Pierre Poilievre in dealing with Trump, poll finds
[url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-mark-carney-pierre-poilievre-trump-tariffs-poll/[/url]
Robert Fife Bureau Chief
Ottawa
Published February 7, 2025 Updated Yesterday
Canadians believe that former central banker Mark Carney would do a better job of handling Canadian trade and tariff negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump than Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, according to a new public-opinion survey.
The poll also found that a strong majority of Canadians favour immediate retaliation against Americans if they impose hefty tariffs, including suspension of energy exports and removal of U.S. beer, wine and liquor from store shelves.
On Monday, Mr. Trump agreed to pause the implementation of planned 25-per-cent tariffs ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-tariffs-canada-us-live-updates-february-3/[/url]) on imports from Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days. Canadian energy exports to the United States would have been hit with a 10-per-cent tariff.
A poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV News by Nanos Research between Jan. 31 and Feb. 3 found that 39.6 per cent of Canadians surveyed consider Mr. Carney, the front-runner for the Liberal leadership, as the most qualified leader to negotiate with Mr. Trump and his administration. Twenty-six per cent of Canadians consider Mr. Poilievre as best qualified.
“Not only do they think he is more qualified but he has a significant advantage over Pierre Poilievre,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research. “This is significant because our next election will probably be a referendum on who is best able to manage the relationship with Donald Trump.”
What Mr. Carney has going for him is that he was in charge of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and headed the Bank of England when he warned of the economic consequences of pulling Britain out of the European Union, Mr. Nanos said.
“He dealt with the financial crisis under the Harper administration. He dealt with the Brexit crisis in the United Kingdom. I think for Canadians who are not experts, I think they see someone who is best likely to manage the U.S. and has experience.”
Mr. Nanos said Mr. Poilievre will need to pivot quickly from his attacks on Mr. Carney over carbon pricing to the biggest economic threat facing the country. Mr. Carney announced last week that he would rescind carbon pricing if he becomes prime minister and would enact incentives to get Canadians to buy greener products.
“The situation with the United States and the potential of tariffs is a much higher magnitude of a threat to Canada in day-to-day reality than the carbon tax,” Mr. Nanos said.
The Nanos poll found that 12.5 per cent of those surveyed believe that Mr. Carney’s closest Liberal leadership rival, Chrystia Freeland, as best able to handle Mr. Trump.
The ex-finance minister has struggled to gain traction in the leadership race, with the majority of her former cabinet colleagues and Liberal MPs backing Mr. Carney.
“Even though Freeland did negotiate the previous renewal of the free-trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico, she trails by a factor of three to one with Mark Carney,” he said. “Within the Liberal family, it is pretty clear that Carney would be viewed as doing a better job than Freeland and within an election, he is seen as being able to do a better job of negotiating with Donald Trump than Pierre Poilievre.”
Former cabinet minister Karina Gould, who is also running for the Liberal leadership, barely registered, with only 0.6 per cent viewing her as best qualified to manage U.S. negotiations. Former Liberal MPs Frank Baylis and Ruby Dhalla are also running for the leadership but were not included in this survey.
Nanos Research surveyed 1,077 Canadians through land line, cellphone and online interviews. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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The poll also found that 76 per cent of Canadians support or somewhat support suspending oil, natural gas and electricity exports to the U.S. and 88 per cent support or somewhat support the removal of U.S. alcohol from stores should Mr. Trump push ahead with tariffs.
Close to three in five Canadians say that if the U.S. raises tariffs on Canadian products, Ottawa should retaliate immediately with dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. imports, while 14 per cent say Canada should do everything possible to avoid escalating any U.S. action into a trade war.
“If you are an American looking at these numbers, you are going to be thinking that whomever the next prime minister is has the latitude to retaliate from Canada and [Canadians] are on board,” Mr. Nanos said.
Most Canadians (64 per cent) say Canada should increase defence spending either to the NATO target of two per cent of GDP or to increase it further to five per cent (12 per cent) of the GDP, as recently demanded by Mr. Trump. Only 14 per cent say Canada should maintain current defence spending at 1.37 per cent of GDP and six per cent would prefer to spend less than what Canada currently spends.
“Canadians are not hawks. They are not militaristic but they do understand that we have to catch up on defence spending with our allies,” Mr. Nanos said.
​
[url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-mark-carney-pierre-poilievre-trump-tariffs-poll/[/url]
Robert Fife Bureau Chief
Ottawa
Published February 7, 2025 Updated Yesterday
Canadians believe that former central banker Mark Carney would do a better job of handling Canadian trade and tariff negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump than Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, according to a new public-opinion survey.
The poll also found that a strong majority of Canadians favour immediate retaliation against Americans if they impose hefty tariffs, including suspension of energy exports and removal of U.S. beer, wine and liquor from store shelves.
On Monday, Mr. Trump agreed to pause the implementation of planned 25-per-cent tariffs ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-tariffs-canada-us-live-updates-february-3/[/url]) on imports from Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days. Canadian energy exports to the United States would have been hit with a 10-per-cent tariff.
A poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV News by Nanos Research between Jan. 31 and Feb. 3 found that 39.6 per cent of Canadians surveyed consider Mr. Carney, the front-runner for the Liberal leadership, as the most qualified leader to negotiate with Mr. Trump and his administration. Twenty-six per cent of Canadians consider Mr. Poilievre as best qualified.
“Not only do they think he is more qualified but he has a significant advantage over Pierre Poilievre,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research. “This is significant because our next election will probably be a referendum on who is best able to manage the relationship with Donald Trump.”
What Mr. Carney has going for him is that he was in charge of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and headed the Bank of England when he warned of the economic consequences of pulling Britain out of the European Union, Mr. Nanos said.
“He dealt with the financial crisis under the Harper administration. He dealt with the Brexit crisis in the United Kingdom. I think for Canadians who are not experts, I think they see someone who is best likely to manage the U.S. and has experience.”
Mr. Nanos said Mr. Poilievre will need to pivot quickly from his attacks on Mr. Carney over carbon pricing to the biggest economic threat facing the country. Mr. Carney announced last week that he would rescind carbon pricing if he becomes prime minister and would enact incentives to get Canadians to buy greener products.
“The situation with the United States and the potential of tariffs is a much higher magnitude of a threat to Canada in day-to-day reality than the carbon tax,” Mr. Nanos said.
The Nanos poll found that 12.5 per cent of those surveyed believe that Mr. Carney’s closest Liberal leadership rival, Chrystia Freeland, as best able to handle Mr. Trump.
The ex-finance minister has struggled to gain traction in the leadership race, with the majority of her former cabinet colleagues and Liberal MPs backing Mr. Carney.
“Even though Freeland did negotiate the previous renewal of the free-trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico, she trails by a factor of three to one with Mark Carney,” he said. “Within the Liberal family, it is pretty clear that Carney would be viewed as doing a better job than Freeland and within an election, he is seen as being able to do a better job of negotiating with Donald Trump than Pierre Poilievre.”
Former cabinet minister Karina Gould, who is also running for the Liberal leadership, barely registered, with only 0.6 per cent viewing her as best qualified to manage U.S. negotiations. Former Liberal MPs Frank Baylis and Ruby Dhalla are also running for the leadership but were not included in this survey.
Nanos Research surveyed 1,077 Canadians through land line, cellphone and online interviews. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
A Carney Liberal leadership win would produce a political rarity: A PM who is not an MP
Freeland, Carney release economic policy plans with vows to cut red tape, diversify trade ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-carney-freeland-liberal-economic-plan/[/url])
The poll also found that 76 per cent of Canadians support or somewhat support suspending oil, natural gas and electricity exports to the U.S. and 88 per cent support or somewhat support the removal of U.S. alcohol from stores should Mr. Trump push ahead with tariffs.
Close to three in five Canadians say that if the U.S. raises tariffs on Canadian products, Ottawa should retaliate immediately with dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. imports, while 14 per cent say Canada should do everything possible to avoid escalating any U.S. action into a trade war.
“If you are an American looking at these numbers, you are going to be thinking that whomever the next prime minister is has the latitude to retaliate from Canada and [Canadians] are on board,” Mr. Nanos said.
Most Canadians (64 per cent) say Canada should increase defence spending either to the NATO target of two per cent of GDP or to increase it further to five per cent (12 per cent) of the GDP, as recently demanded by Mr. Trump. Only 14 per cent say Canada should maintain current defence spending at 1.37 per cent of GDP and six per cent would prefer to spend less than what Canada currently spends.
“Canadians are not hawks. They are not militaristic but they do understand that we have to catch up on defence spending with our allies,” Mr. Nanos said.
​
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